Capeside Plan

Atascocita, TX 77346

$328,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,977 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,580/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax + insurance: −$547
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-228/mo
• Annual: $-2,735/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $91,826

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $329k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major: exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major: flooring — No visible interior or exterior flooring in the satellite image.
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls or paint in the satellite image.
• Major: systems — No visible systems in the satellite image.