Capeside Plan · Atascocita, TX 77346

$328,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,977 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

The Courtyard Collection | The Capeside, Model Plan | 1,977 Sq. Ft. | Two Story | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | 2-car Garage | 1st Floor Covered Patio | 2nd Floor | Covered Balcony

Key facts

• Covered balcony
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 34 days

Tags

• 1ST FLOOR COVERED PATIO
• COVERED BALCONY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 15815 Invergelder Dr, Humble, TX 77346; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price: $328,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Plan home: Capeside; New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1,977 total living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $328,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $327,951.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $329k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,175 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,951
• List price: $328,990
• Delta: 0.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15810 Black Grouse Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+4%)	4mo	$340,000	$166	85
16426 Apache Woods Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,930 (-2%)	3mo	$364,900	$189	81
15627 Countesswells Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,105 (+6%)	2mo	$319,900	$152	77
15814 Black Grouse Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,756 (-11%)	3mo	$309,990	$177	75
12826 Crombie Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	2,075 (+5%)	5mo	$315,000	$152	70
12007 Texas Trumpet Trl S	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+0%)	2mo	$385,000	$194	67
15710 Cairnwell Bend Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,024 (+2%)	2mo	$325,000	$161	66
12226 Castano Creek Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-13%)	0mo	$329,900	$191	63
12511 Albright Grove Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,152 (+9%)	1mo	$369,900	$172	56
15603 Beltie Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,257 (+14%)	4mo	$355,000	$157	55
15614 Harmony Terrace Ct	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-12%)	1mo	$259,000	$148	54
12559 New Castle Park Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-15%)	2mo	$280,000	$166	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-44,817
• Equity at exit: $79,886

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-57,416
• Equity at exit: $84,502

Cash invested: $91,826 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,602 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,919/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,869

Max offer price $297,417

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-98	+0% $-211	+5% $-324	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-417	-5% $-314	+0% $-211	+5% $-108	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-128	base $-211	+0.5pp $-296	+1.0pp $-382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,988
• Closing costs: $9,839
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	3d	1	0.27mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	44d	1	0.27mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	44d	1	0.69mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	25d	1	0.73mi
15713 Saxton Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1643	$1,999	$1.22	2d	36	0.85mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	2d	1	1.07mi
15957 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,200	$1.46	44d	1	1.11mi
12138 Loch Muick Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,411	$1.28	6d	1	1.16mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 15984 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,134	$1.42	11d	1	1.17mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3112 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,102	$1.40	3d	1	1.17mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,326	$0.99	6d	1	1.20mi
15863 Kinlough Dr Humble, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1326	$2,518	$1.90	3d	16	1.21mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	25d	1	1.27mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,743	$1.22	3d	1	1.39mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 16788 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,934	$1.35	44d	1	1.39mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,775	$1.24	11d	1	1.39mi
14935 Moonlight Mist Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$2,200	$2.27	4d	21	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $328,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $328,990 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $328,990 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $328,990 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $328,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $328,990 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $328,990 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $328,990 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $328,990 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $328,990 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $328,990 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $328,990 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $328,990 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $328,990 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $328,990 Active 187-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,370
• − Property taxes: −$4,919
• − Insurance: −$1,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,498
• − Management: −$2,498
• − Depreciation: −$9,540
• Taxable loss: −$8,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,979
• After-tax cash flow: $-554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property appears to be in a state of disrepair with no visible roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, or systems. Extensive renovations are required to bring the property up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major flooring — No visible interior or exterior flooring in the satellite image.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls or paint in the satellite image.
• Major systems — No visible systems in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both exterior renovation — A fresh exterior paint job and landscaping would enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both interior updates — Updating the interior walls, flooring, and paint would make the home more appealing and functional.
• Both system upgrades — Upgrading the HVAC and other systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible exterior in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible interior or exterior flooring in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior walls or paint in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both exterior renovation — A fresh exterior paint job and landscaping would enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both interior updates — Updating the interior walls, flooring, and paint would make the home more appealing and functional. ↑
• Both system upgrades — Upgrading the HVAC and other systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B