1302 Saltbox Dr

Chesterfield, MO 63017

$400,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,090 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,698/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$503
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-479/mo
• Annual: $-5,745/yr
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (32.5% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#110 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shenandoah Valley Elem. (math 66% / reading 72%, grade A-, #40 of 1,115 statewide, top 4%, 431 students, 8% FRL); Central Middle (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B, #24 of 391 statewide, top 6%, 925 students, 14% FRL); Central High (math 53% / reading 73%, grade B-, #26 of 521 statewide, top 5%, 1,244 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $345k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Chesterfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.