1302 Saltbox Dr · Chesterfield, MO 63017

$400,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1977 0.28 ac lot $191/sqft · 19% below area Est $496k · 19% under $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for to get into the sought-after Shenandoah subdivision. Spacious 2 story home in sought after Shenandoah subdivision. This home boasts 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a main floor laundry. As you step inside, the entry Foyer is flanked by the formal living and dining rooms. The spacious kitchen features a center island. The family room has a wood burning fireplace and access to an upgraded trex deck overlooking the beautiful large and fenced back yard. The second story offers a master bedroom suite, full bath and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, two with their own walk-in closets. The walkout lower level has a finished room perfect for office or exercise room. The home has vinyl siding & updated windows. New roof 2015. Great location, close to parks, shops, restaurants and highways. AAA rated Parkway schools. Don’t miss this opportunity today!!

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Shenandoah association; Annual HOA fee of $120 covering grounds maintenance; Common ground available

Exterior

• Parking: Has attached garage; Has garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volt electric; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence (residential); Attached property; Two levels
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Back yard; Corner lot; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total (4 on upper levels, 1 on lower level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Attic fan
• Interior features: Finished basement with walk-out access; Partially finished basement; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Chesterfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#110 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shenandoah Valley Elem. (math 66% / reading 72%, grade A-, #40 of 1,115 statewide, top 4%, 431 students, 8% FRL); Central Middle (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B, #24 of 391 statewide, top 6%, 925 students, 14% FRL); Central High (math 53% / reading 73%, grade B-, #26 of 521 statewide, top 5%, 1,244 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $345k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,807 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $495,840
• List price: $400,000
• Delta: -19.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14958 Pocono Cir	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,110 (+1%)	12mo	$475,000	$225	80
14653 Rogue River Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,102 (+1%)	9mo	$435,000	$207	77
1266 Beaver Creek Rd	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,056 (-2%)	9mo	$299,000	$145	73
14759 Plumas Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,036 (-3%)	17mo	$505,000	$248	69
1172 Jonesborough Rd	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,056 (-2%)	14mo	$460,000	$224	66
15261 Springrun Dr	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,347 (+12%)	8mo	$495,000	$211	57
1204 Cedar Creek Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,335 (+12%)	1mo	$545,000	$233	56
14563 Coeur Dalene Ct	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,283 (+9%)	18mo	$465,000	$204	56
240 Greentrails Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,156 (+3%)	8mo	$549,999	$255	52
14356 Rainy Lake Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,184 (+4%)	21mo	$399,900	$183	51
1513 Royal Crest Ct	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,007 (-4%)	13mo	$499,900	$249	51
15451 Duxbury Way	0.71mi	4/3.0	1,977 (-5%)	9mo	$430,000	$218	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-88,349
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-86,109
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63017

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,698 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,031/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,304

Max offer price $315,430

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-252	-5% $-366	+0% $-479	+5% $-592	+10% $-705
Rent	-10% $-692	-5% $-585	+0% $-479	+5% $-372	+10% $-266
Rate	-1.0pp $-277	-0.5pp $-377	base $-479	+0.5pp $-582	+1.0pp $-688

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1225 Traverton Dr Chesterfield, MO	4.0	2.0	1908	$2,680	$1.40	45d	1	0.24mi
1287 Still House Creek Rd Chesterfield, MO	4.0	2.5	2056	$2,695	$1.31	45d	1	0.30mi
14355 Rainy Lake Dr Unit 1 Chesterfield, MO	5.0	2.5	2568	$2,750	$1.07	19d	1	0.50mi
15362 Olive Blvd Chesterfield, MO	4.0	3.0	2320	$2,650	$1.14	45d	1	1.12mi
15480 Elk Ridge Ln Chesterfield, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1375	$2,339	$1.70	0d	27	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-10
   historical Active Under Contract 1075-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $400,000 Active 1075-char remark
3. 2026-05-05
   historical $400,000 1075-char remark
4. 2022-10-04
   soldstatus $345,000
5. 2022-09-29
   soldstatus Closed 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   This is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for to get into the sought-after Shenandoah subdivision. Spacious 2 story home in sought after Shenandoah subdivision. This home boasts 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a main floor laundry. As you step inside, the entry Foyer is flanked by the formal living and dining rooms. The spacious kitchen features a center island. The family room has a wood burning fireplace and access to an upgraded trex deck overlooking the beautiful large and fenced back yard. The second story offers a master bedroom suite, full bath and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, two with their own walk-in closets. The walkout lower level has a finished room perfect for office or exercise room. The home has vinyl siding & updated windows. New roof 2015. Great location, close to parks, shops, restaurants and highways. AAA rated Parkway schools. Don’t miss this opportunity today!!

6. 2022-08-22
   status Pending 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   This is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for to get into the sought-after Shenandoah subdivision. Spacious 2 story home in sought after Shenandoah subdivision. This home boasts 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a main floor laundry. As you step inside, the entry Foyer is flanked by the formal living and dining rooms. The spacious kitchen features a center island. The family room has a wood burning fireplace and access to an upgraded trex deck overlooking the beautiful large and fenced back yard. The second story offers a master bedroom suite, full bath and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, two with their own walk-in closets. The walkout lower level has a finished room perfect for office or exercise room. The home has vinyl siding & updated windows. New roof 2015. Great location, close to parks, shops, restaurants and highways. AAA rated Parkway schools. Don’t miss this opportunity today!!

7. 2022-07-28
   listed $350,000 Active 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   This is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for to get into the sought-after Shenandoah subdivision. Spacious 2 story home in sought after Shenandoah subdivision. This home boasts 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a main floor laundry. As you step inside, the entry Foyer is flanked by the formal living and dining rooms. The spacious kitchen features a center island. The family room has a wood burning fireplace and access to an upgraded trex deck overlooking the beautiful large and fenced back yard. The second story offers a master bedroom suite, full bath and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, two with their own walk-in closets. The walkout lower level has a finished room perfect for office or exercise room. The home has vinyl siding & updated windows. New roof 2015. Great location, close to parks, shops, restaurants and highways. AAA rated Parkway schools. Don’t miss this opportunity today!!

8. 2022-07-20
   historical $350,000 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   This is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for to get into the sought-after Shenandoah subdivision. Spacious 2 story home in sought after Shenandoah subdivision. This home boasts 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a main floor laundry. As you step inside, the entry Foyer is flanked by the formal living and dining rooms. The spacious kitchen features a center island. The family room has a wood burning fireplace and access to an upgraded trex deck overlooking the beautiful large and fenced back yard. The second story offers a master bedroom suite, full bath and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, two with their own walk-in closets. The walkout lower level has a finished room perfect for office or exercise room. The home has vinyl siding & updated windows. New roof 2015. Great location, close to parks, shops, restaurants and highways. AAA rated Parkway schools. Don’t miss this opportunity today!!

9. 1992-04-07
   soldstatus $126,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,031 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,031 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$4,031
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,590
• − Management: −$2,590
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$12,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,119
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Chesterfield

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #7054

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesterfield, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 43,243
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,243
• Household income: $127,095
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1012.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 13% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -230.79%
• Current HPI: 218.3938
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.52%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+216.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $400,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $400,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-29 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-22 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-28 Listed $350,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-20 Coming Soon $350,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $126,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,031 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.