10076 Golden Pond Dr

Union, KY 41091

$300,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,212 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,443/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$364
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-84/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-84/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (18.6% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $244k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#79 in KY, #2,521 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Mann Elementary School (math 63% / reading 65%, grade B, #21 of 676 statewide, top 3%, 717 students, 19% FRL); Gray Middle School (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B, #3 of 217 statewide, top 1%, 1,029 students, 27% FRL); Larry A. Ryle High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 2,013 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.4% in Union — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.