10076 Golden Pond Dr · Union, KY 41091

$300,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1996 0.29 ac lot Est $392k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic 4 BR 2-Story*Pride of Ownership*Huge Master Suite w Unbelievable Walk-in Closet*Master Bath Features Dbl Vanity, Separate Shower & Whirlpool Tub*Spacious Kitchen w Island, Updated Kitchen Appliances, Quartz Counter-tops w Back-splash & Lg Breakfast Area w Bay Window*Laundry, Kitchen & Breakfast Feature Tile Flrs*1st Fl Laundry*Huge Deck & Patio*Ryle School District*Corner Lot

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Spacious kitchen
• Bay window

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• BREAKFAST AREA
• BAY WINDOW

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage faces front
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Two-story single family house; Existing structure; Shingle roof; Faces front: garage
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Poured concrete foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Gazebo; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (20 x 15); Bedroom 2 (12 x 11); Bedroom 3 (12 x 10); Bedroom 4 (11 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Brick fireplace; Full basement; Bay windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-84/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.4% in Union — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#79 in KY, #2,521 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 473 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $244,339 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,524
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10086 Indian Hill Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,080 (-6%)	10mo	$325,000	$156	73
2025 Chris Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,163 (-2%)	2mo	$380,000	$176	62
1642 Sycamore Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,336 (+6%)	3mo	$250,000	$107	61
1344 Wilshire Ct	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+2%)	11mo	$400,000	$177	58
9743 Cherbourg Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,094 (-5%)	10mo	$385,000	$184	57
3832 Sonata Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,526 (+14%)	6mo	$390,000	$154	51
1517 Sweetsong Dr	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,234 (+1%)	19mo	$513,000	$230	49
1984 Prosperity Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,397 (+8%)	1mo	$389,900	$163	48
1112 Ashton Ct	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,472 (+12%)	2mo	$605,000	$245	45
1413 R J Ln	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,432 (+10%)	11mo	$317,500	$131	42
2543 Sweet Harmony Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-13%)	16mo	$400,000	$208	32
9709 Cobalt Way	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,984 (-10%)	14mo	$509,900	$257	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-49,106
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-43,526
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41091

• Active inventory: 473
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,869/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,452

Max offer price $298,760

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $78	+0% $-7	+5% $-92	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-104	+0% $-7	+5% $89	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $69	base $-7	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1919 Promenade CIR Union, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1071	$2,550	$2.38	4d	38	0.53mi
1620 Corinthian Dr Florence, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1165	$2,254	$1.93	3d	21	1.03mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 660-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $300,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,869 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,869 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,869
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,346
• − Management: −$2,346
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,265
• After-tax cash flow: $1,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Union

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union, KY
• Population (ZIP): 24,371

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.29%
• Current HPI: 175.3571
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+88.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $300,000 NKMLS
• 2016-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-28 Sold (MLS) $210,000 NKMLS
• 2016-10-28 Sold (MLS) $210,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-09-15 Listed $210,000 NKMLS
• 2016-09-15 Listed $210,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-08-24 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2016-08-12 Listed $210,000 NKMLS
• 1998-05-08 Sold (MLS) $175,250 NKMLS
• 1998-01-14 Listed $178,900 NKMLS
• 1996-09-27 Sold (MLS) $159,000 NKMLS
• 1995-12-15 Listed $159,000 NKMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,869 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.