1833 Smokey Mountain Dr

Bear Creek Ranch, TX 75146

$320,490D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,897 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,624/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,681
• Tax + insurance: −$534
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-182/mo
• Annual: $-2,179/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $89,737

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (18.1% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $262k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Main El (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 603 students, 85% FRL); Lancaster Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 1,007 students, 84% FRL); Lancaster H S (math 14% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,250 students, 84% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $2,624/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 1462% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.