1833 Smokey Mountain Dr · Bear Creek Ranch, TX 75146

$320,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,897 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2024 5,750 sqft lot Est $304k · 6% over $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

New! Spacious, open concept floor plan! Four bedrooms, two full baths, with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, Quartz counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Bear Creek Ranch with its prime location near three major highways, I-20, I-45 and I-35, Bear Creek offers plenty of activities to fit your lifestyle. Enjoy the community amenity center, swimming pool, open green space including a playground, picnic area and hike and biking nature trails for all sorts of outdoor activities. Whether you’re a nature lover, need a night on the town or quick commute to Dallas, this residential community ha

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Main El (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 603 students, 85% FRL); Lancaster Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 1,007 students, 84% FRL); Lancaster H S (math 14% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,250 students, 84% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,624/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 1462% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $262,436 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1942 Duskwood Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-3%)	0mo	$309,900	$169	86
1933 Rainwater Way	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,917 (+1%)	8mo	$309,900	$162	77
1445 Elm Forest Way	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,897 (0%)	4mo	$323,490	$171	74
1813 Overlook Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (+4%)	1mo	$285,000	$144	66
1944 Newport Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,978 (+4%)	11mo	$289,999	$147	64
2052 Fair Weather Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-3%)	1mo	$273,000	$148	62
1857 Eagle River Trl	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,970 (+4%)	10mo	$295,000	$150	60
1800 Pioneer Way	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,864 (-2%)	12mo	$230,000	$123	59
2039 Fair Weather Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,870 (-1%)	8mo	$300,000	$160	58
1720 Duskwood Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,772 (-7%)	12mo	$300,000	$169	53
1708 Duskwood Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,052 (+8%)	8mo	$314,990	$154	53
1901 Duskwood Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (-13%)	12mo	$317,400	$193	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 2.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $36,855
• Equity at exit: $154,589

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $135,488
• Equity at exit: $246,734

Cash invested: $89,737 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75146

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$401 /mo · $4,807/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,854

Max offer price $294,214

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-71	+0% $-182	+5% $-292	+10% $-403
Rent	-10% $-389	-5% $-285	+0% $-182	+5% $-78	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-100	base $-182	+0.5pp $-265	+1.0pp $-349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,122
• Closing costs: $9,615
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1840 Hickory Woods Rd Unit NA Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,250	$1.54	9d	1	0.04mi
1766 Pioneer Way Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,195	$1.18	45d	1	0.55mi
4127 Passage Way Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	1979	$2,300	$1.16	12d	1	0.63mi
2508 Nokomis Rd Lancaster, TX	5.0	2.5	2132	$9,500	$4.46	24d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   status Active
3. 2024-07-23
   status Pending
4. 2024-07-09
   listed $320,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,952
• − Property taxes: −$4,807
• − Insurance: −$1,602
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,519
• − Management: −$2,519
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$9,323
• Taxable loss: −$7,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,851
• After-tax cash flow: $-328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826670
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,275
• Composite: 21.41/100
• National rank: #8349
• State rank: #714 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bear Creek Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bear Creek Ranch, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,097
• Household income: $68,071
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1462.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% White 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 316.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-07-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-07-09 Listed $320,490 NTREIS