311 Pearce Rd

Collinsville, TX 76233

$99,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $240/mo
• Annual: $2,877/yr
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.38%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#834 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Collinsville ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #414 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.4% in Collinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.