311 Pearce Rd · Collinsville, TX 76233

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1986 8,189 sqft lot $138/sqft · 38% below area Est $159k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 2-bedroom, 1 bath home located in the charming town of Collinsville, TX. This home is conveniently located just minutes from downtown where you’ll find your favorite restaurants, antique shops, local parks and more. This home was remodeled in 2024 with new HVAC system, wood look floors throughout, granite counters in the kitchen, a new bath vanity, as well as new windows and exterior siding, and a new roof. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or simply seeking a cozy home in a welcoming North Texas town, this property delivers! Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of small-town charm in a great location! Make an offer today! All information to be verified by Buyer and Buyer's Agent

Key facts

• Wood look floors
• New bath vanity
• Granite counters

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• WOOD LOOK FLOORS
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• NEW BATH VANITY
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.4% in Collinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#834 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Collinsville ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #414 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.38%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,978
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -37.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-766
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $19,025
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76233

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,300/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 E Stone St Unit B Collinsville, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$1,150	$1.58	44d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $99,000 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active Option Contract 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active Option Contract 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active Option Contract 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active Option Contract 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active Option Contract 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active Option Contract 47 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active Option Contract 46 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $99,000 Active Option Contract 45 DOM
10. 2026-04-15
    listed $99,000 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Adorable 2-bedroom, 1 bath home located in the charming town of Collinsville, TX. This home is conveniently located just minutes from downtown where you’ll find your favorite restaurants, antique shops, local parks and more. This home was remodeled in 2024 with new HVAC system, wood look floors throughout, granite counters in the kitchen, a new bath vanity, as well as new windows and exterior siding, and a new roof. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or simply seeking a cozy home in a welcoming North Texas town, this property delivers! Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of small-town charm in a great location! Make an offer today! All information to be verified by Buyer and Buyer's Agent

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,300 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$511/yr (+$43/mo · 39.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,300
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,371
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$329
• After-tax cash flow: $2,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collinsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814580
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,810
• Composite: 34.07/100
• National rank: #5300
• State rank: #414 of 826 in TX

Livability — Collinsville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #834
• US rank: #15040

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Collinsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,604

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.91%
• Current HPI: 278.8187
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $99,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,300 · +17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.