1040 Macon Wall Rd

Ashland City, TN 37015

$125,000B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,887/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $681/mo
• Annual: $8,177/yr
• Cap rate: 12.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.36%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cheatham County (rural): math 24% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #74 of 139 in TN (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Cheatham Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 393 students, 0% FRL); Cheatham Co Central (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 581 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 40% district-wide (40 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 271 units permitted in Cheatham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.5% in Ashland City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.