1040 Macon Wall Rd · Ashland City, TN 37015

$125,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1999 0.80 ac lot $64/sqft · 53% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent investment opportunity in growing Ashland City! Conveniently located with access to public utilities and just a short drive to Nashville. Ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking for redevelopment potential. Property being sold as-is. Don’t miss this opportunity in a rapidly developing area.

Key facts

• Nashville area
• 0.8 acre lot
• Built 1999

Tags

• CHEATHAM COUNTY LOCATION
• ACCESS TO ASHTON CITY
• NASHVILLE AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured on land; One story
• Construction: Built existing (year recorded by assessor); Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Patio; Covered patio; Covered porch; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double oven; Carpet flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.5% in Ashland City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cheatham County (rural): math 24% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #74 of 139 in TN (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Cheatham Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 393 students, 0% FRL); Cheatham Co Central (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 581 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 40% district-wide (40 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 271 units permitted in Cheatham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.36%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,000
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -52.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $21,503
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $67,986
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37015

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,887 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,219/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,024

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $752	-5% $717	+0% $681	+5% $646	+10% $611
Rent	-10% $532	-5% $607	+0% $681	+5% $756	+10% $830
Rate	-1.0pp $744	-0.5pp $713	base $681	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $125,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $170,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-05-08
   listed $170,000 Active 316-char remark
10. 2026-05-06
    historical
11. 2026-05-06
    historical
12. 2026-03-30
    listed $450,000 Active
13. 2026-03-30
    listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,219 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,219 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,219
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,811
• − Management: −$1,811
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $6,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,569
• After-tax cash flow: $6,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheatham County
• NCES district ID: 4700570
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,027
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7949
• State rank: #74 of 139 in TN

Livability — Ashland City

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #12483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cheatham County · 18,988 people
• City population: 18,988
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 18,988
• Household income: $79,092
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 396.0

Population outlook (Cheatham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,312 people
• By 2030: 41,739 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 41,726 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 40,413 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 37,125 · -10.1%
• By 2100: 31,619 · -23.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cheatham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.3% · R 72.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+44.0 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+37.0 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.06%
• Current HPI: 313.8358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-72.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $125,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $170,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $450,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $450,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,219 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.