45 River St

Belchertown, MA 01007

$232,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,230/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax + insurance: −$388
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $157/mo
• Annual: $1,888/yr
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.91%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $64,960

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (3.9% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#56 in MA, #2,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Belchertown (rural): math 35% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #176 of 302 in MA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 349 units permitted in Hampshire County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hampshire County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Belchertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.