45 River St · Belchertown, MA 01007

$232,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1925 0.99 ac lot $215/sqft · 22% below area Est $296k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES AND GRAB YOUR TOOLBELT!! Flippers/ Investors or energetic home buyer this one is for you! Needs a good clean out and work, but the potential is immense!! 2bed, 1 bath, 2 car garage Cape on beautiful, level 1 acre lot in Belchertown. Hardwood floors throughout first floor. Open kitchen dining area, living room with cozy fireplace and bonus side sitting room. Upstairs you will find 2 bedrooms with electric baseboard heat, and another cozy nook for added space. updated electric 2012 ( APO), new septic system 2010, current passing title V, town water. Does it need work, YUP!! Does it need junk removed, YUP! Does it have a TON of potential to be amazing, ABSOLUTELY!! cash or rehab loans preferred being sold "as is, where is" with contents as seen Bring this charming home back to life and enjoy the potential for immense equity!!

Key facts

• Level 1 acre lot
• Updated electric
• New septic system

Tags

• LEVEL 1 ACRE LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OPEN KITCHEN DINING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Belchertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#56 in MA, #2,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Belchertown (rural): math 35% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #176 of 302 in MA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 349 units permitted in Hampshire County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hampshire County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,080 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.91%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,704
• List price: $232,000
• Delta: -21.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
684 Franklin St	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+2%)	9mo	$355,000	$323	71
3030 Main	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,114 (+3%)	19mo	$66,800	$60	46
22 Crawford St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (-9%)	4mo	$260,000	$265	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-27,540
• Equity at exit: $34,592

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,941
• Equity at exit: $20,059

Cash invested: $64,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01007

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,492/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,031

Max offer price $232,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $223	+0% $157	+5% $92	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $69	+0% $157	+5% $245	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $216	base $157	+0.5pp $97	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,000
• Closing costs: $6,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $232,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $232,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $232,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $232,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $232,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $232,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $232,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $232,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $232,000 New 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES AND GRAB YOUR TOOLBELT!! Flippers/ Investors or energetic home buyer this one is for you! Needs a good clean out and work, but the potential is immense!! 2bed, 1 bath, 2 car garage Cape on beautiful, level 1 acre lot in Belchertown. Hardwood floors throughout first floor. Open kitchen dining area, living room with cozy fireplace and bonus side sitting room. Upstairs you will find 2 bedrooms with electric baseboard heat, and another cozy nook for added space. updated electric 2012 ( APO), new septic system 2010, current passing title V, town water. Does it need work, YUP!! Does it need junk removed, YUP! Does it have a TON of potential to be amazing, ABSOLUTELY!! cash or rehab loans preferred being sold "as is, where is" with contents as seen Bring this charming home back to life and enjoy the potential for immense equity!!

17. 2010-11-23
    soldstatus $164,000 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Beautiful country cape on flat ACRE lot. Room for kids to play and grow. Close to Palmer and easy access to Palmer Turnpike Exit and Rt. 20. Perfect for 100% USDA financing. New Kitchen and bath update in 2008. Like new Appliances.

18. 2010-03-24
    listed $169,000 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Beautiful country cape on flat ACRE lot. Room for kids to play and grow. Close to Palmer and easy access to Palmer Turnpike Exit and Rt. 20. Perfect for 100% USDA financing. New Kitchen and bath update in 2008. Like new Appliances.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,492 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,492 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,996
• − Property taxes: −$3,492
• − Insurance: −$1,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − Depreciation: −$6,749
• Taxable loss: −$1,919
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$461
• After-tax cash flow: $2,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belchertown
• NCES district ID: 2502430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $77,349
• Composite: 38.71/100
• National rank: #4136
• State rank: #176 of 302 in MA

Livability — Belchertown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #2946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hampshire County · 76,035 people
• City population: 15,419
• Metro: Springfield, MA
• Population (ZIP): 15,419
• Household income: $108,125
• Rent vs Own: 13.1% rent · 86.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 191.0

Population outlook (Hampshire County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 166,577 people
• By 2030: 168,928 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 171,197 · +2.8%
• By 2050: 175,542 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 199,884 · +20.0%
• By 2100: 211,819 · +27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 14% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hampshire

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+41.9) · D 69.5% · R 27.6% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 45.6pp · 2024: 41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+41.9 2020: D+46.8 2016: D+39.5 2012: D+43.8 2008: D+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 274.6244
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Springfield, MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+37.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $232,000 MLS PIN
• 2010-11-23 Sold (MLS) $164,000 MLS PIN
• 2010-03-24 Listed $169,000 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,492 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.