154 Spinnaker Ln

Roxboro, NC 27343

$575,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,520 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,326/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$564
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-2,532/mo
• Annual: $-30,379/yr
• Cap rate: 1.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.87%
• DSCR: 0.16
• 1% rule: 0.23%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (77.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (76.9% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($523k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (77.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $495k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 4.5% in Roxboro — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 78% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?