Pedernales Plan

Houston, TX 77447

$294,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 446 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax + insurance: −$555
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-351/mo
• Annual: $-4,213/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $93,237

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant damage or wear is visible.
• Major: roof — Missing or damaged shingles are evident.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt appearance.
• Major: interior walls/paint — No interior walls or paint are visible, suggesting significant damage or neglect.
• Major: bathrooms — No bathrooms are visible, indicating potential structural or plumbing issues.
• Major: kitchen — No kitchen is visible, suggesting potential structural or plumbing issues.