Pedernales Plan · Houston, TX 77447

$294,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 446 Days on market

Poor condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Kitchen island
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FOURTH BEDROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $294,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $332,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,857 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,990
• List price: $294,990
• Delta: -11.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,759 (-2%)	1mo	$299,990	$171	92
22214 San Lioni Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,908 (+6%)	1mo	$333,990	$175	88
22002 Maddaloni View Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,922 (+7%)	1mo	$316,990	$165	87
21639 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-3%)	1mo	$337,990	$193	87
22106 La Scorza Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+4%)	0mo	$307,990	$164	86
21643 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-8%)	1mo	$333,990	$202	85
21623 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-8%)	1mo	$328,990	$199	85
21927 Maddaloni View Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,013 (+12%)	1mo	$352,990	$175	79
19307 Licola Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-10%)	0mo	$276,990	$170	78
19071 Cetara Villa Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (-12%)	0mo	$249,990	$158	56
21707 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+13%)	1mo	$300,000	$147	43
19446 Saint Green Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (+13%)	1mo	$306,990	$150	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-83,514
• Equity at exit: $49,650

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-129,320
• Equity at exit: $28,791

Cash invested: $93,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,469 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,995/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,913

Max offer price $282,193

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-236	+0% $-351	+5% $-466	+10% $-581
Rent	-10% $-546	-5% $-449	+0% $-351	+5% $-254	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-183	-0.5pp $-266	base $-351	+0.5pp $-437	+1.0pp $-525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,248
• Closing costs: $9,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,450	$1.17	23d	1	0.20mi
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	45d	1	0.46mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,876	$0.98	0d	1	0.49mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,901	$1.19	0d	1	0.54mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	0d	1	0.68mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	4d	1	0.79mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,712	$1.32	0d	1	0.92mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	3d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,990 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 443 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 442 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 441 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 438 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,990 Active 429 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 428 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 427 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 426 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 425 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $294,990 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

16. 2026-02-14
    price $304,990 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

17. 2025-04-01
    listed $305,990 Active 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,653
• − Property taxes: −$4,995
• − Insurance: −$1,665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,370
• − Management: −$2,370
• − Depreciation: −$9,687
• Taxable loss: −$10,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,428
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This single-family home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, roof, landscaping, and interior repairs. Significant structural and mechanical issues are evident, making it a high-potential project for renovation. Immediate attention to these areas will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage or wear is visible.
• Major roof — Missing or damaged shingles are evident.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt appearance.
• Major interior walls/paint — No interior walls or paint are visible, suggesting significant damage or neglect.
• Major bathrooms — No bathrooms are visible, indicating potential structural or plumbing issues.
• Major kitchen — No kitchen is visible, suggesting potential structural or plumbing issues.
• Major systems — No systems are visible, indicating potential electrical or mechanical issues.
• Major windows — No windows are visible, indicating potential structural or plumbing issues.
• Major foundation/structure — No foundation or structure is visible, indicating potential structural issues.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC or mechanicals are visible, indicating potential electrical or mechanical issues.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and exterior repairs — Aesthetic improvements and repairs to the exterior can enhance both resale and rental value.
• Both interior repairs and painting — Repairs and painting to the interior walls and paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both roof and siding repairs — Addressing the roof and siding issues can improve the home's structural integrity and curb appeal, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both bathroom and kitchen repairs — Repairs to the bathrooms and kitchen can improve functionality and appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC and mechanical repairs — Ensuring the HVAC and mechanical systems are in good working order can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant damage or wear is visible.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Missing or damaged shingles are evident.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No interior walls or paint are visible, suggesting significant damage or neglect.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No bathrooms are visible, indicating potential structural or plumbing issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No kitchen is visible, suggesting potential structural or plumbing issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No systems are visible, indicating potential electrical or mechanical issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No windows are visible, indicating potential structural or plumbing issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · No foundation or structure is visible, indicating potential structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No HVAC or mechanicals are visible, indicating potential electrical or mechanical issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and exterior repairs — Aesthetic improvements and repairs to the exterior can enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both interior repairs and painting — Repairs and painting to the interior walls and paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both roof and siding repairs — Addressing the roof and siding issues can improve the home's structural integrity and curb appeal, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both bathroom and kitchen repairs — Repairs to the bathrooms and kitchen can improve functionality and appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical repairs — Ensuring the HVAC and mechanical systems are in good working order can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $305,990 Zillow