HAYDEN Plan

Lexington, NC 27295

$315,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,511 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,954/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,733
• Tax + insurance: −$551
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-740/mo
• Annual: $-8,877/yr
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.60%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $92,508

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $316k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-740 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (38.2% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#89 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities D-.
• Davidson County Schools (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #62 of 178 in NC (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 569 active listings in the ZIP; 990 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davidson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.