HAYDEN Plan · Lexington, NC 27295

$315,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,511 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Hayden, this floorplan features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, 2,511 sq. ft. of living space, and a 2-car garage. Upon entering the home, you'll be greeted by an inviting foyer passing by the flex room, then led into the center of the home. This open-concept space features a functional kitchen overlooking the living room, a breakfast area, a guest bedroom and a full bathroom in the back left of the home. The kitchen is equipped with a corner walk-in pantry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, kitchen island, and a breakfast area. From the breakfast area you can step out onto the back patio, perfect for entertaining guests or relaxing after a long day.

Key facts

• Primary bathroom
• Kitchen island
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CORNER WALK-IN PANTRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• BACK PATIO
• PRIMARY BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $315,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $330,387.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $316k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-740 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#89 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities D-.
• Davidson County Schools (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #62 of 178 in NC (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 569 active listings in the ZIP; 990 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,377 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.60%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,387
• List price: $315,990
• Delta: -4.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Pinhook Dr	0.03mi	5/3.0	2,511 (0%)	0mo	$305,000	$121	98
216 Waylon Ct	0.14mi	5/3.0	2,454 (-2%)	5mo	$338,990	$138	86
264 Waylon Ct	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,403 (-4%)	6mo	$339,990	$141	78
320 Zinnia Pl	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,511 (0%)	1mo	$366,390	$146	67
252 Zinnia Pl	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,511 (0%)	4mo	$349,000	$139	64
154 Zinnia Pl	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,511 (0%)	6mo	$350,000	$139	59
315 Lantanna Ave	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,250 (-10%)	6mo	$339,000	$151	50
192 Zinnia Pl	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,644 (+5%)	6mo	$342,000	$129	49
215 Zinnia Pl	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,250 (-10%)	4mo	$329,000	$146	44
253 Zinnia Pl	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,250 (-10%)	6mo	$339,000	$151	44
309 Zinnia Pl	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (-14%)	4mo	$325,000	$150	41
163 Lantanna Ave	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (-14%)	6mo	$310,000	$143	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-99,892
• Equity at exit: $49,262

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-144,515
• Equity at exit: $28,566

Cash invested: $92,508 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $305,990 ($134/sqft)
• Median days on market: 97 d
• This list price: 65% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 27295

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 569
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,733
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$413 /mo · $4,956/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,890

Max offer price $223,344

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-511	-5% $-626	+0% $-740	+5% $-854	+10% $-968
Rent	-10% $-894	-5% $-817	+0% $-740	+5% $-663	+10% $-585
Rate	-1.0pp $-573	-0.5pp $-656	base $-740	+0.5pp $-825	+1.0pp $-912

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,597
• Closing costs: $9,912
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,990 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,990 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $315,990 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,990 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,990 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,990 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,990 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,990 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,990 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,990 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,990 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,990 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $325,990 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,990 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,990 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,990 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,990 Active 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,507
• − Property taxes: −$4,956
• − Insurance: −$1,652
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − Depreciation: −$9,611
• Taxable loss: −$15,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,608
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to the interior walls and flooring to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring — New flooring can enhance the home's curb appeal ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tyro Elementary F NC #771/1,410 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Tyro Middle F NC #238/475 Nat'l #6,362/14,009 High West Davidson High C- NC #270/535 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701140
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,696
• Composite: 42.76/100
• National rank: #3157
• State rank: #62 of 178 in NC

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #6051

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Davidson County · 167,156 people
• City population: 79,578
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,267
• Household income: $63,961
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 167,156 people
• By 2030: 167,216 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 164,524 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 157,229 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 138,084 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 112,729 · -32.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.39%
• Current HPI: 258.6557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.37%
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B