2817 W 20th St

New York, NY 11221

$1,186,500B+

45 bd · 25.0 ba · 3,160 sqft · Built 1930 · MultiFamily · Active · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $14,171/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,222
• Tax + insurance: −$2,141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,976
• Net cashflow: $2,832/mo
• Annual: $33,984/yr
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.77%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $332,220

Investor read

• This is a 5 × 9-bed/5.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.19M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive. Per door: $566/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $1.19M).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.04M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.04M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $127k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $119k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $332k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$204k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $14,171/mo this rent would consume 198% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 8053% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?