433 Coolbaugh Rd

Michigan Center, MI 49201

$64,900B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $838/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $172/mo
• Annual: $2,062/yr
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.35%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $18,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($838 rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#314 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Grass Lake Community Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #146 of 540 in MI (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $65k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.0% in Michigan Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.