433 Coolbaugh Rd · Michigan Center, MI 49201

$64,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily · 80 Days on market

Built 1930 1.22 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very private location. Close to Freeway for easy commute to Ann Arbor. This home needs complete renovation to make the home suitable for living. This is a private fenced location that would be perfect for homesteaders looking for space to grow a large garden and live a simpler life. The home has Natural Gas and electric. This is a cash only sale and sellers are selling as-is.

Key facts

• Fenced location
• Space to grow garden
• Private location

Tags

• PRIVATE LOCATION
• FENCED LOCATION
• SPACE TO GROW GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($838 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.0% in Michigan Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#314 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Grass Lake Community Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #146 of 540 in MI (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $65k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $61,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.35%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $4,896
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $38,671
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49201

• Rents YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,475/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $621

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $64,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $64,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $64,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on marketlisting id $64,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $64,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $64,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $64,900 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-03-30
    listed $64,900 Active 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    Very private location. Close to Freeway for easy commute to Ann Arbor. This home needs complete renovation to make the home suitable for living. This is a private fenced location that would be perfect for homesteaders looking for space to grow a large garden and live a simpler life. The home has Natural Gas and electric. This is a cash only sale and sellers are selling as-is.

19. 2026-03-30
    listed $64,900 Active 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    Very private location. Close to Freeway for easy commute to Ann Arbor. This home needs complete renovation to make the home suitable for living. This is a private fenced location that would be perfect for homesteaders looking for space to grow a large garden and live a simpler life. The home has Natural Gas and electric. This is a cash only sale and sellers are selling as-is.

20. 2024-08-29
    soldstatus $37,000
21. 2024-08-22
    soldstatus $37,000 Sold
22. 2024-08-22
    soldstatus $37,000 Closed
23. 2024-08-08
    status Pending
24. 2024-08-08
    status Pending
25. 2024-08-01
    listed $57,000 Active
26. 2024-08-01
    listed $57,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,475
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$805
• − Management: −$805
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $1,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$270
• After-tax cash flow: $1,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grass Lake Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2616830
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,842
• Composite: 38.45/100
• National rank: #4193
• State rank: #146 of 540 in MI

Livability — Michigan Center

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 85,581 people
• City population: 3,617
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• Population (ZIP): 49,107
• Household income: $74,484
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 840.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,365 people
• By 2030: 153,123 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 144,981 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 135,671 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 113,833 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 86,592 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.6% · R 59.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.89%
• Current HPI: 185.3773
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.32%
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+13.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-30 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-22 Sold (MLS) $37,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-22 Sold (MLS) $37,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-08 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-08-01 Listed $57,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-01 Listed $57,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,475 · +280.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.