8 Albie Dr

Haviland, NY 12538

$450,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,741 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,857/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$942
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$810
• Net cashflow: $-255/mo
• Annual: $-3,062/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $405k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $386k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $386k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#712 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $285k; list at $450k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Haviland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.