8 Albie Dr · Haviland, NY 12538

$450,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,741 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1972 0.39 ac lot $258/sqft · 9% below area Est $494k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and versatile raised ranch in Hyde Park featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. This well-designed home offers comfortable living with both upper and lower levels providing separate living and dining areas. The lower level includes a private entrance, making it ideal for extended living, guest space, or flexible use. An additional room can serve as a home office or entertainment area. The lower-level bedroom is equipped with a proper egress window, and recent construction has been completed in accordance with building codes for added peace of mind. Enjoy a generously sized yard and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and major routes.

Key facts

• Private entrance
• Convenient location
• Raised ranch

Tags

• RAISED RANCH
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• HOME OFFICE
• GENEROUSLY SIZED YARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $405k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $386k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $386k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Haviland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#712 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $285k; list at $450k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $385,699 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $493,670
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -8.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Margaret Dr	0.02mi	4/1.5	1,875 (+8%)	2mo	$425,000	$227	82
74 Roosevelt Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,729 (-1%)	2mo	$549,900	$318	76
31 Lawrence Rd	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,838 (+6%)	3mo	$345,000	$188	74
15 Franklin Rd	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,834 (+5%)	3mo	$389,000	$212	63
32 Lawrence Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,514 (-13%)	10mo	$390,000	$258	58
45 Roosevelt Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (-7%)	17mo	$456,000	$282	58
30 Richard Rd	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,963 (+13%)	5mo	$430,000	$219	55
185 Roosevelt Rd	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (+9%)	7mo	$439,000	$231	53
218 Roosevelt Rd	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,944 (+12%)	9mo	$420,000	$216	51
12 Lawrence Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (+14%)	12mo	$407,000	$205	49
3 Dill Ln	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,711 (-2%)	7mo	$418,000	$244	48
11 Franklin Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,558 (-10%)	14mo	$325,000	$209	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-88,997
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-97,709
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12538

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$699 /mo · $8,392/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$810
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,180

Max offer price $404,918

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Roe Dr Hyde Park, NY	5.0	3.0	2200	$4,200	$1.91	44d	1	0.24mi
171 Roosevelt Rd Hyde Park, NY	4.0	4.0	2126	$3,775	$1.78	14d	1	0.42mi
157 Cream St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,950	$2.22	14d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $450,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $450,000 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    Spacious and versatile raised ranch in Hyde Park featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. This well-designed home offers comfortable living with both upper and lower levels providing separate living and dining areas. The lower level includes a private entrance, making it ideal for extended living, guest space, or flexible use. An additional room can serve as a home office or entertainment area. The lower-level bedroom is equipped with a proper egress window, and recent construction has been completed in accordance with building codes for added peace of mind. Enjoy a generously sized yard and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and major routes.

16. 2026-04-16
    listed $465,000 Active 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    Spacious and versatile raised ranch in Hyde Park featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. This well-designed home offers comfortable living with both upper and lower levels providing separate living and dining areas. The lower level includes a private entrance, making it ideal for extended living, guest space, or flexible use. An additional room can serve as a home office or entertainment area. The lower-level bedroom is equipped with a proper egress window, and recent construction has been completed in accordance with building codes for added peace of mind. Enjoy a generously sized yard and a convenient location close to schools, shopping, and major routes.

17. 2026-04-14
    historical
18. 2026-04-11
    price $489,000
19. 2026-03-27
    price $510,000
20. 2026-03-12
    listed $530,000 Active
21. 2026-03-12
    historical
22. 2026-03-06
    listed $530,000 Active
23. 2023-12-08
    soldstatus $285,000
24. 2023-09-27
    listed $339,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,392 · $699/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,392 · $699/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$8,392
• − Insurance: −$2,916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,703
• − Management: −$3,703
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$10,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,575
• After-tax cash flow: $-488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hyde Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615180
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,932
• Composite: 46.59/100
• National rank: #2421
• State rank: #316 of 590 in NY

Livability — Haviland

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #712
• US rank: #13550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haviland, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,104

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.47%
• Current HPI: 272.998
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+32.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $465,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $489,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $510,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $530,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $530,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-08 Sold (MLS) $285,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-27 Listed $339,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,392 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.