39516 Cottagegrove

Lovettsville, VA 20180

$695,000D-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,456 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax + insurance: −$773
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$777
• Net cashflow: $-1,495/mo
• Annual: $-17,941/yr
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.22%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $194,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $695k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $431k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (46.8% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($685k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $370k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in VA, #3,260 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 1.9% in Lovettsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.