39516 Cottagegrove · Lovettsville, VA 20180

$695,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1975 10 ac lot $283/sqft · at area comps Est $705k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the serene landscape of Lovettsville, this 4 Level home offers a privacy and serenity. Set on a sprawling 10-acre lot that is horse and livestock friendly and backs to tall hardwood trees, it's a retreat from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. Look out onto the pasture-like front yard as you sit in a rocking chair on the wrap-around porch. You won't see many cars driving by since this is a non-through street with only 7 homes. The 4 Bedrooms on the upper level all have freshly sanded wood floors. Hardwoods are also on the main level. The heart of the home is the cozy living room, highlighted by a brick hearth and fireplace while the large bay window looks out onto the vista in the front. Peering out from the kitchen window will transport you right into your own nature wonderland as you consider chopping wood, building forts or just watching nature. The 3rd level (lower level 1) is fully finished which offers a walkout level and rear entrance, and full bath. There are also 2 additional rooms that can be tailored to your needs-be it a home office, gym, or entertainment area. And the convenience of a lower-floor laundry adds to the home's functionality. Outside, the former in-ground pool was converted a while back into a pond. The very oversized detached garage (27' x 52'), has space for at least four vehicles, ensuring that your prized possessions are well cared for. Enjoy the peace of rural living while being just a few minutes from Historic Waterford. Whether you're hosting large gatherings or seeking solitude, this property offers the perfect backdrop for creating cherished memories. This home is ready for your personal updates.

Key facts

• 10 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $695k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $431k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (46.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $370k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 1.9% in Lovettsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in VA, #3,260 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($685k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $370,000 (46.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.22%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $704,624
• List price: $695,000
• Delta: -1.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39516 Cottagegrove	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,456 (0%)	1mo	$625,000	$254	94
14460 Milltown Rd	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,506 (+2%)	7mo	$669,000	$267	57
14301 Rehobeth Church Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,608 (+6%)	18mo	$475,000	$182	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $283,112
• Equity at exit: $626,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $908,241
• Equity at exit: $1,350,232

Cash invested: $194,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20180

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax from tax record: −$484 /mo · $5,806/yr
• Insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$777
• Net cashflow: $-1,495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,593

Max offer price $430,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,102	-5% $-1,298	+0% $-1,495	+5% $-1,692	+10% $-1,889
Rent	-10% $-1,787	-5% $-1,641	+0% $-1,495	+5% $-1,349	+10% $-1,203
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,145	-0.5pp $-1,318	base $-1,495	+0.5pp $-1,675	+1.0pp $-1,858

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,750
• Closing costs: $20,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13886 Berlin Tpke Unit A Lovettsville, VA	3.0	3.5	2160	$3,700	$1.71	6d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1673 chars)

   Nestled in the serene landscape of Lovettsville, this 4 Level home offers a privacy and serenity. Set on a sprawling 10-acre lot that is horse and livestock friendly and backs to tall hardwood trees, it's a retreat from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. Look out onto the pasture-like front yard as you sit in a rocking chair on the wrap-around porch. You won't see many cars driving by since this is a non-through street with only 7 homes. The 4 Bedrooms on the upper level all have freshly sanded wood floors. Hardwoods are also on the main level. The heart of the home is the cozy living room, highlighted by a brick hearth and fireplace while the large bay window looks out onto the vista in the front. Peering out from the kitchen window will transport you right into your own nature wonderland as you consider chopping wood, building forts or just watching nature. The 3rd level (lower level 1) is fully finished which offers a walkout level and rear entrance, and full bath. There are also 2 additional rooms that can be tailored to your needs-be it a home office, gym, or entertainment area. And the convenience of a lower-floor laundry adds to the home's functionality. Outside, the former in-ground pool was converted a while back into a pond. The very oversized detached garage (27' x 52'), has space for at least four vehicles, ensuring that your prized possessions are well cared for. Enjoy the peace of rural living while being just a few minutes from Historic Waterford. Whether you're hosting large gatherings or seeking solitude, this property offers the perfect backdrop for creating cherished memories. This home is ready for your personal updates.

2. 2026-05-03
   historical Active Under Contract 1673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1673 chars)

   Nestled in the serene landscape of Lovettsville, this 4 Level home offers a privacy and serenity. Set on a sprawling 10-acre lot that is horse and livestock friendly and backs to tall hardwood trees, it's a retreat from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. Look out onto the pasture-like front yard as you sit in a rocking chair on the wrap-around porch. You won't see many cars driving by since this is a non-through street with only 7 homes. The 4 Bedrooms on the upper level all have freshly sanded wood floors. Hardwoods are also on the main level. The heart of the home is the cozy living room, highlighted by a brick hearth and fireplace while the large bay window looks out onto the vista in the front. Peering out from the kitchen window will transport you right into your own nature wonderland as you consider chopping wood, building forts or just watching nature. The 3rd level (lower level 1) is fully finished which offers a walkout level and rear entrance, and full bath. There are also 2 additional rooms that can be tailored to your needs-be it a home office, gym, or entertainment area. And the convenience of a lower-floor laundry adds to the home's functionality. Outside, the former in-ground pool was converted a while back into a pond. The very oversized detached garage (27' x 52'), has space for at least four vehicles, ensuring that your prized possessions are well cared for. Enjoy the peace of rural living while being just a few minutes from Historic Waterford. Whether you're hosting large gatherings or seeking solitude, this property offers the perfect backdrop for creating cherished memories. This home is ready for your personal updates.

3. 2026-04-30
   price $695,000 1673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1673 chars)

   Nestled in the serene landscape of Lovettsville, this 4 Level home offers a privacy and serenity. Set on a sprawling 10-acre lot that is horse and livestock friendly and backs to tall hardwood trees, it's a retreat from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. Look out onto the pasture-like front yard as you sit in a rocking chair on the wrap-around porch. You won't see many cars driving by since this is a non-through street with only 7 homes. The 4 Bedrooms on the upper level all have freshly sanded wood floors. Hardwoods are also on the main level. The heart of the home is the cozy living room, highlighted by a brick hearth and fireplace while the large bay window looks out onto the vista in the front. Peering out from the kitchen window will transport you right into your own nature wonderland as you consider chopping wood, building forts or just watching nature. The 3rd level (lower level 1) is fully finished which offers a walkout level and rear entrance, and full bath. There are also 2 additional rooms that can be tailored to your needs-be it a home office, gym, or entertainment area. And the convenience of a lower-floor laundry adds to the home's functionality. Outside, the former in-ground pool was converted a while back into a pond. The very oversized detached garage (27' x 52'), has space for at least four vehicles, ensuring that your prized possessions are well cared for. Enjoy the peace of rural living while being just a few minutes from Historic Waterford. Whether you're hosting large gatherings or seeking solitude, this property offers the perfect backdrop for creating cherished memories. This home is ready for your personal updates.

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $765,000 Active 1673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1673 chars)

   Nestled in the serene landscape of Lovettsville, this 4 Level home offers a privacy and serenity. Set on a sprawling 10-acre lot that is horse and livestock friendly and backs to tall hardwood trees, it's a retreat from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. Look out onto the pasture-like front yard as you sit in a rocking chair on the wrap-around porch. You won't see many cars driving by since this is a non-through street with only 7 homes. The 4 Bedrooms on the upper level all have freshly sanded wood floors. Hardwoods are also on the main level. The heart of the home is the cozy living room, highlighted by a brick hearth and fireplace while the large bay window looks out onto the vista in the front. Peering out from the kitchen window will transport you right into your own nature wonderland as you consider chopping wood, building forts or just watching nature. The 3rd level (lower level 1) is fully finished which offers a walkout level and rear entrance, and full bath. There are also 2 additional rooms that can be tailored to your needs-be it a home office, gym, or entertainment area. And the convenience of a lower-floor laundry adds to the home's functionality. Outside, the former in-ground pool was converted a while back into a pond. The very oversized detached garage (27' x 52'), has space for at least four vehicles, ensuring that your prized possessions are well cared for. Enjoy the peace of rural living while being just a few minutes from Historic Waterford. Whether you're hosting large gatherings or seeking solitude, this property offers the perfect backdrop for creating cherished memories. This home is ready for your personal updates.

5. 2026-04-05
   historical $765,000 1673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1673 chars)

   Nestled in the serene landscape of Lovettsville, this 4 Level home offers a privacy and serenity. Set on a sprawling 10-acre lot that is horse and livestock friendly and backs to tall hardwood trees, it's a retreat from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. Look out onto the pasture-like front yard as you sit in a rocking chair on the wrap-around porch. You won't see many cars driving by since this is a non-through street with only 7 homes. The 4 Bedrooms on the upper level all have freshly sanded wood floors. Hardwoods are also on the main level. The heart of the home is the cozy living room, highlighted by a brick hearth and fireplace while the large bay window looks out onto the vista in the front. Peering out from the kitchen window will transport you right into your own nature wonderland as you consider chopping wood, building forts or just watching nature. The 3rd level (lower level 1) is fully finished which offers a walkout level and rear entrance, and full bath. There are also 2 additional rooms that can be tailored to your needs-be it a home office, gym, or entertainment area. And the convenience of a lower-floor laundry adds to the home's functionality. Outside, the former in-ground pool was converted a while back into a pond. The very oversized detached garage (27' x 52'), has space for at least four vehicles, ensuring that your prized possessions are well cared for. Enjoy the peace of rural living while being just a few minutes from Historic Waterford. Whether you're hosting large gatherings or seeking solitude, this property offers the perfect backdrop for creating cherished memories. This home is ready for your personal updates.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,806 · $484/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,806 · $484/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,931
• − Property taxes: −$5,806
• − Insurance: −$3,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,552
• − Management: −$3,552
• − Depreciation: −$20,218
• Taxable loss: −$31,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,472
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lovettsville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #3260

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,791
• Population (ZIP): 7,791

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.48%
• Current HPI: 312.1538
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $695,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $765,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-05 Coming Soon $765,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,806 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.