3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,754 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,229/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$323
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$468
Net cashflow
$259/mo
Annual
$3,105/yr
Cap rate
7.67%
Cash-on-cash
4.93%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (0.9% below list).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $223k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#84 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities D-, commute D-, health & safety F.
University City (suburban): math 15% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 324 in MO (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Jackson Park Elem. (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #967 of 1,115 statewide, top 88%, 268 students, 100% FRL); University City Sr. High (math 5% / reading 52%, grade F, #409 of 521 statewide, top 79%, 726 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.9% in University City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G9XJT5D73DCCW6
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29