3533 Redbud Flower Trl

Venus, TX 76084

$449,900F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,635 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,476/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$115
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-862/mo
• Annual: $-10,346/yr
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.21%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-862 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (33.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (45.0% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $248k (45.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.