231 Shelby St

Bromley, KY 41016

$174,900C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,864 sqft · Built 1882 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,880/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $270/mo
• Annual: $3,243/yr
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.25%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#106 in KY, #4,580 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Kenton County (suburban): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #14 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: River Ridge Elementary School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #117 of 676 statewide, top 17%, 931 students, 61% FRL); Turkey Foot Middle School (math 38% / reading 51%, grade D, #36 of 217 statewide, top 18%, 1,029 students, 47% FRL); Dixie Heights High School (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #36 of 254 statewide, top 14%, 1,561 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 33% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1882 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $175k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1882 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.