231 Shelby St · Bromley, KY 41016

$174,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1882 5,009 sqft lot Est $207k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Endless possibilities await in this historical style all brick two story*Home has had some electrical upgrades*Furnance and a/c and vinyl double hung windows*This old house will need some attention*Bring your tool belt and get started.

Key facts

• Piece of history
• Conveniently located
• 5,009 sq ft lot

Tags

• UNIQUE ARCHITECTURAL DETAILS
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• PIECE OF HISTORY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#106 in KY, #4,580 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Kenton County (suburban): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #14 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: River Ridge Elementary School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #117 of 676 statewide, top 17%, 931 students, 61% FRL); Turkey Foot Middle School (math 38% / reading 51%, grade D, #36 of 217 statewide, top 18%, 1,029 students, 47% FRL); Dixie Heights High School (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #36 of 254 statewide, top 14%, 1,561 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 33% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $175k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1882 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,276 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1882 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.25%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,904
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
231 Shelby St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,864 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$91	99
205 Moore St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-3%)	19mo	$300,000	$167	69
210 Pleasant St	0.21mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,696 (-9%)	9mo	$210,000	$124	63
3158 River Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,826 (-2%)	1mo	$57,000	$31	60
638 Delhi Ave	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,862 (-0%)	1mo	$41,500	$22	59
607 Elm St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,808 (-3%)	3mo	$331,000	$183	58
306 Stokesay St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-12%)	8mo	$313,500	$191	44
3183 E River Rd	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,823 (-2%)	22mo	$202,000	$111	43
545 Elm St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,596 (-14%)	2mo	$332,000	$208	40
663 Steiner St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,728 (-7%)	21mo	$148,300	$86	38
641 Steiner Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,666 (-11%)	14mo	$70,000	$42	36
657 Sedam St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-13%)	11mo	$37,500	$23	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,096
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $12,634
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41016

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,903/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,538

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $320	+0% $270	+5% $221	+10% $171
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $196	+0% $270	+5% $345	+10% $419
Rate	-1.0pp $358	-0.5pp $315	base $270	+0.5pp $225	+1.0pp $179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2454 River Rd Unit 2 Cincinnati, OH	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	25d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   listed $174,900 Active
3. 2014-10-28
   soldstatus $45,000
4. 2014-10-22
   soldstatus $45,000 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Endless possibilities await in this historical style all brick two story*Home has had some electrical upgrades*Furnance and a/c and vinyl double hung windows*This old house will need some attention*Bring your tool belt and get started.

5. 2014-09-09
   listed $49,900 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Endless possibilities await in this historical style all brick two story*Home has had some electrical upgrades*Furnance and a/c and vinyl double hung windows*This old house will need some attention*Bring your tool belt and get started.

6. 2011-10-07
   historical
7. 2011-07-13
   listed $114,000
8. 2011-06-20
   historical
9. 2010-07-07
   listed $114,500
10. 2007-10-10
    historical
11. 2007-05-10
    listed $125,000
12. 2005-07-27
    soldstatus $110,000
13. 2005-02-24
    historical
14. 2004-08-12
    listed $105,000
15. 2004-03-26
    soldstatus $44,000
16. 2004-02-18
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,903
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$118
• After-tax cash flow: $3,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenton County
• NCES district ID: 2103090
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $66,183
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #3789
• State rank: #14 of 165 in KY

Livability — Bromley

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #4580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bromley, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 5,795
• Household income: $71,172
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.84%
• Current HPI: 215.1436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+250.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $174,900 NKMLS
• 2014-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-22 Sold (MLS) $45,000 NKMLS
• 2014-09-09 Listed $49,900 NKMLS
• 2011-10-07 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2011-07-13 Listed $114,000 NKMLS
• 2011-06-20 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2010-07-07 Listed $114,500 NKMLS
• 2007-10-10 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2007-05-10 Listed $125,000 NKMLS
• 2005-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-24 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2004-08-12 Listed $105,000 NKMLS
• 2004-03-26 Sold (MLS) $44,000 NKMLS
• 2004-02-18 Listed $49,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,903 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.