38 W Mountain Ln

Bethlehem Village, CT 06783

$795,000C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,336 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 254 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,169
• Tax + insurance: −$838
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $918/mo
• Annual: $11,016/yr
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.95%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $222,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $795k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $918 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $750k (5.7% below list).
• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($700k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $700k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#107 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Regional School District 12 (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 153 in CT (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.