38 W Mountain Ln · Bethlehem Village, CT 06783

$795,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 252 Days on market

Built 2001 4.96 ac lot $340/sqft · 49% below area Est $1550k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on a long private road, this light and bright Roxbury retreat combines timeless character with modern comfort. The home features three spacious bedrooms and two and a half baths, thoughtfully designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. Soaring ceilings with exposed beams and abundant skylights fill the interior with natural light, highlighting the warmth of beautiful wood floors throughout. The open floor plan creates a sense of airiness and flow, while large windows bring the surrounding nature indoors. Whether you're relaxing in the peaceful primary bedroom or gathering in the inviting living area, every space feels serene and connected to the outdoors. The lower level offers 9'+ ceilings, windows and a walk-out. A rare opportunity to enjoy quiet country living just minutes from the heart of Roxbury - the perfect blend of rustic charm and contemporary style.

Key facts

• Private road
• Open floor plan
• Wood floors

Tags

• PRIVATE ROAD
• SOARING CEILINGS
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• ABUNDANT SKYLIGHTS
• WOOD FLOORS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $795k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $918 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $750k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $700k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#107 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Regional School District 12 (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 153 in CT (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($700k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $699,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.95%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,549,945
• List price: $795,000
• Delta: -48.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
277 Painter Hill Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,559 (+10%)	5mo	$2,547,500	$996	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-70,541
• Equity at exit: $118,537

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $13,106
• Equity at exit: $68,737

Cash invested: $222,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06783

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,169
• Tax from tax record: −$507 /mo · $6,080/yr
• Insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $918

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,338

Max offer price $795,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,368	-5% $1,143	+0% $918	+5% $693	+10% $468
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $622	+0% $918	+5% $1,214	+10% $1,511
Rate	-1.0pp $1,318	-0.5pp $1,120	base $918	+0.5pp $712	+1.0pp $502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $198,750
• Closing costs: $23,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Bear Burrow Rd Roxbury, CT	4.0	2.5	3026	$7,500	$2.48	44d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $795,000 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $795,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $795,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $795,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $795,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $795,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $795,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $795,000 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $795,000 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $795,000 Active 241 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $795,000 Active 240 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $795,000 Active 237 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $795,000 Active 236 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $795,000 Active 235 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $795,000 Active 234 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $795,000 Active 233 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $795,000 Active 232 DOM
18. 2025-10-10
    listed $795,000 Active 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Tucked away on a long private road, this light and bright Roxbury retreat combines timeless character with modern comfort. The home features three spacious bedrooms and two and a half baths, thoughtfully designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. Soaring ceilings with exposed beams and abundant skylights fill the interior with natural light, highlighting the warmth of beautiful wood floors throughout. The open floor plan creates a sense of airiness and flow, while large windows bring the surrounding nature indoors. Whether you're relaxing in the peaceful primary bedroom or gathering in the inviting living area, every space feels serene and connected to the outdoors. The lower level offers 9'+ ceilings, windows and a walk-out. A rare opportunity to enjoy quiet country living just minutes from the heart of Roxbury - the perfect blend of rustic charm and contemporary style.

19. 2025-10-07
    historical $4,200
20. 2025-09-20
    price $4,200
21. 2025-09-10
    price $4,400
22. 2025-08-12
    listed $4,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,080 · $507/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,546 · $962/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,466/yr (+$456/mo · 89.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,532
• − Property taxes: −$6,080
• − Insurance: −$3,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$23,127
• Taxable loss: −$2,115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$508
• After-tax cash flow: $11,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 12
• NCES district ID: 0903530
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $86,065
• Composite: 63.18/100
• National rank: #638
• State rank: #20 of 153 in CT

Livability — Bethlehem Village

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #9178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,398
• Population (ZIP): 2,184

Population outlook (Northwest Hills County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 118,998

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 7% Hispanic 5%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Northwest Hills

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 49.9% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.80%
• Current HPI: 170.3789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+17182.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-10 Listed $795,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-10-07 Rental Removed $4,200 SMARTMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $4,200 SMARTMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $4,400 SMARTMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed for Rent $4,600 SMARTMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,080 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.