10536 Coral Key Ave

Tampa, FL 33647

$469,900D-

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,082 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,649/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,464
• Tax + insurance: −$1,047
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $-637/mo
• Annual: $-7,639/yr
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $131,572

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $470k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-637 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($456k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $357k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 480 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $470k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.