10536 Coral Key Ave · Tampa, FL 33647

$469,900

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,082 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2007 5,550 sqft lot $152/sqft · 28% below area Est $654k · 28% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short sale! HERITAGE ISLES. Lovely 2 story single family home offering 6 Bedrooms & 3 full Bathrooms. Beautifully maintained home featuring Dark Cherry 42" upper cabinets, stainless steel appliances and granite counters. Oversized spacious bedrooms throughout. Lovely pond views. All bedrooms are located on 2nd floor.

Key facts

• Conservation lot
• Two-story home
• Serene pond

Tags

• TWO-STORY HOME
• SERENE POND
• CONSERVATION LOT
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association amenities include golf course, pool and tennis courts; Directions: Cross Creek Blvd through the gates of Heritage Isles to Plantation Bay to Coral Key
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Condominium Associates HOA (approval required); Annual association fee of $100 (covers common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, recreational facilities); Monthly HOA due approximately $8.33; Community clubhouse, fitness center, golf, pool, tennis courts; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two-story home; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on a slab; Built on a 0.13-acre lot (approx. 50 x 111)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt and concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-637 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $357k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 480 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($456k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $470k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $357,445 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $653,890
• List price: $469,900
• Delta: -28.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-127,160
• Equity at exit: $70,064

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-203,361
• Equity at exit: $40,628

Cash invested: $131,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33647

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 480
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,464
• Tax from tax record: −$851 /mo · $10,216/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $-637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,455

Max offer price $357,445

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,475
• Closing costs: $14,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10531 Mistflower Ln Tampa, FL	6.0	5.0	4140	$5,250	$1.27	5d	1	0.52mi
19305 Yellow Clover Dr Tampa, FL	5.0	4.0	3500	$3,700	$1.06	24d	1	0.85mi
11127 Sundrift Dr Tampa, FL	5.0	4.0	3317	$3,450	$1.04	17d	1	1.25mi
11127 Sundrift Dr Unit NA Tampa, FL	5.0	4.0	3317	$3,450	$1.04	16d	1	1.25mi
11131 Sundrift Dr Tampa, FL	5.0	3.0	3559	$3,700	$1.04	24d	1	1.26mi
20019 Date Palm Way Tampa, FL	5.0	2.5	2382	$3,125	$1.31	5d	1	1.34mi
19430 Redwood Point Dr Tampa, FL	5.0	4.0	3316	$3,750	$1.13	18d	1	1.34mi
20044 Date Palm Way Tampa, FL	5.0	2.5	2820	$2,945	$1.04	24d	1	1.38mi
11006 Tahiti Isle Ln Tampa, FL	5.0	4.5	3537	$3,900	$1.10	12d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $469,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $469,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $469,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $469,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $469,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $469,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $469,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $469,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $469,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $489,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $489,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $489,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $489,000 Active 1020-char remark
16. 2013-04-25
    soldstatus $190,000
17. 2013-04-23
    soldstatus $190,000 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    Short sale! HERITAGE ISLES. Lovely 2 story single family home offering 6 Bedrooms & 3 full Bathrooms. Beautifully maintained home featuring Dark Cherry 42" upper cabinets, stainless steel appliances and granite counters. Oversized spacious bedrooms throughout. Lovely pond views. All bedrooms are located on 2nd floor.

18. 2012-09-14
    listed $189,900 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    Short sale! HERITAGE ISLES. Lovely 2 story single family home offering 6 Bedrooms & 3 full Bathrooms. Beautifully maintained home featuring Dark Cherry 42" upper cabinets, stainless steel appliances and granite counters. Oversized spacious bedrooms throughout. Lovely pond views. All bedrooms are located on 2nd floor.

19. 2007-09-10
    soldstatus $315,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,216 · $851/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,216 · $851/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,322
• − Property taxes: −$10,216
• − Insurance: −$2,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,503
• − Management: −$3,503
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$13,670
• Taxable loss: −$15,871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,809
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 74,844
• Household income: $109,285
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2578.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 16% Black 16% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.77%
• Current HPI: 225.0483
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+49.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $469,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $489,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-23 Sold (MLS) $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-14 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-10 Sold (MLS) $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,216 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.