4015 Overture Cir #312

Bradenton, FL 34209

$289,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,277 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,554/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$482
• HOA: −$529
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-508/mo
• Annual: $-6,099/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.54%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-508 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (11.6% below list).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sea Breeze Elementary School (math 48% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 74% FRL); W. D. Sugg Middle School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #462 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,010 students, 72% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 644 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor: Bathtub and sink — Used appearance