605 Third St

Marble Hill, MO 63764

$124,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $29/mo
• Annual: $351/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($351/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (20.1% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#508 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Woodland R-IV (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #239 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elem. (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 347 students, 63% FRL); Woodland Middle (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 261 students, 56% FRL); Woodland High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 521 statewide, top 87%, 248 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP.
• Bollinger County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.1% in Marble Hill — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.