605 Third St · Marble Hill, MO 63764

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · Other public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1950 1.27 ac lot $114/sqft · 44% above area Est $122k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 1.27 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($351/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.1% in Marble Hill — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#508 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Woodland R-IV (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #239 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elem. (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 347 students, 63% FRL); Woodland Middle (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 261 students, 56% FRL); Woodland High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 521 statewide, top 87%, 248 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bollinger County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,851 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,289
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: 2.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $16,860
• Equity at exit: $56,160

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $57,362
• Equity at exit: $86,550

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63764

• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $631/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $65	+0% $29	+5% $-6	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-50	-5% $-10	+0% $29	+5% $69	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $61	base $29	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $124,900 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $124,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-04-09
    listed $129,900 Active
19. 2025-11-05
    price $129,900
20. 2025-10-15
    listed $134,900 Active
21. 2024-04-26
    soldstatus Closed
22. 2024-03-18
    status Pending
23. 2024-01-23
    listed $114,900 Active
24. 1986-03-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $631 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$581/yr (+$48/mo · 92.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$631
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$959
• − Management: −$959
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodland R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2919350
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $32,564
• Composite: 28.21/100
• National rank: #6804
• State rank: #239 of 324 in MO

Livability — Marble Hill

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #19511

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marble Hill, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,568

Population outlook (Bollinger County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,825 people
• By 2030: 11,546 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 10,935 · -7.5%
• By 2050: 10,222 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 8,396 · -29.0%
• By 2100: 6,530 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bollinger

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+72.7 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+13.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listed $134,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-26 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-18 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-23 Listed $114,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $631 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.