438 Route 304

Bardonia, NY 10954

$550,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,012 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 230 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,572/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$1,298
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$750
• Net cashflow: $-1,360/mo
• Annual: $-16,316/yr
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.59%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (43.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $357k (35.0% below list).
• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $310k (43.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
• Clarkstown Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #66 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.