438 Route 304 · Bardonia, NY 10954

$550,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1976 0.49 ac lot $543/sqft · 22% below area Est $705k · 22% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUGE PRICE DROP! Welcome to this fantastic ranch featuring a fully finished walkout basement, located in the highly sought-after Clarkstown School District! This property includes 4 bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with a warm and inviting living room on the main floor adorned with beautiful hardwood floors as seen. Formerly utilized as commercial space, this home offers great potential for residential living or a possible home office setup. The walkout basement is equipped with 3 office spaces or dens along with a half bath. One of the highlights is the spacious driveway that accommodates over 10+ vehicles, conveniently situated off the main road! You’ll find this location just minutes away from restaurants, shops, parks, major roadways, and public transport options to NYC! Don’t miss out on this amazing opportunity! As per town, property can be converted back to commercial.

Key facts

• Walkout basement
• Commercial space
• Spacious driveway

Tags

• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• CLARKSTOWN SCHOOL DISTRICT
• COMMERCIAL SPACE
• HOME OFFICE SETUP
• SPACIOUS DRIVEWAY
• PUBLIC TRANSPORT OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (43.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $357k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (43.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
• Clarkstown Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #66 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,806 (43.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.59%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $704,541
• List price: $550,000
• Delta: -21.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
184 Ludvigh Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+3%)	10mo	$652,000	$627	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-173,520
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-253,495
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10954

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$1,068 /mo · $12,821/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$750
• Net cashflow: $-1,360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,293

Max offer price $309,806

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,048	-5% $-1,204	+0% $-1,360	+5% $-1,515	+10% $-1,671
Rent	-10% $-1,642	-5% $-1,501	+0% $-1,360	+5% $-1,219	+10% $-1,077
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,083	-0.5pp $-1,220	base $-1,360	+0.5pp $-1,502	+1.0pp $-1,647

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Kings Hwy New City, NY	2.0	2.0	1214	$3,200	$2.64	44d	1	0.85mi
502 W Nyack Rd West Nyack, NY	2.0	1.0	1022	$2,600	$2.54	44d	1	1.31mi
100 Avalon Gardens Dr Nanuet, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$4,539	$3.93	2d	21	1.40mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $550,000 Pending 230 DOM
2. 2026-04-25
   price $550,000 903-char remark

   Show marketing remark (903 chars)

   HUGE PRICE DROP! Welcome to this fantastic ranch featuring a fully finished walkout basement, located in the highly sought-after Clarkstown School District! This property includes 4 bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with a warm and inviting living room on the main floor adorned with beautiful hardwood floors as seen. Formerly utilized as commercial space, this home offers great potential for residential living or a possible home office setup. The walkout basement is equipped with 3 office spaces or dens along with a half bath. One of the highlights is the spacious driveway that accommodates over 10+ vehicles, conveniently situated off the main road! You’ll find this location just minutes away from restaurants, shops, parks, major roadways, and public transport options to NYC! Don’t miss out on this amazing opportunity! As per town, property can be converted back to commercial.

3. 2026-01-02
   price $575,000 903-char remark

   Show marketing remark (903 chars)

   HUGE PRICE DROP! Welcome to this fantastic ranch featuring a fully finished walkout basement, located in the highly sought-after Clarkstown School District! This property includes 4 bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with a warm and inviting living room on the main floor adorned with beautiful hardwood floors as seen. Formerly utilized as commercial space, this home offers great potential for residential living or a possible home office setup. The walkout basement is equipped with 3 office spaces or dens along with a half bath. One of the highlights is the spacious driveway that accommodates over 10+ vehicles, conveniently situated off the main road! You’ll find this location just minutes away from restaurants, shops, parks, major roadways, and public transport options to NYC! Don’t miss out on this amazing opportunity! As per town, property can be converted back to commercial.

4. 2025-11-20
   price $599,995 903-char remark

   Show marketing remark (903 chars)

   HUGE PRICE DROP! Welcome to this fantastic ranch featuring a fully finished walkout basement, located in the highly sought-after Clarkstown School District! This property includes 4 bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with a warm and inviting living room on the main floor adorned with beautiful hardwood floors as seen. Formerly utilized as commercial space, this home offers great potential for residential living or a possible home office setup. The walkout basement is equipped with 3 office spaces or dens along with a half bath. One of the highlights is the spacious driveway that accommodates over 10+ vehicles, conveniently situated off the main road! You’ll find this location just minutes away from restaurants, shops, parks, major roadways, and public transport options to NYC! Don’t miss out on this amazing opportunity! As per town, property can be converted back to commercial.

5. 2025-10-22
   price $649,995 903-char remark

   Show marketing remark (903 chars)

   HUGE PRICE DROP! Welcome to this fantastic ranch featuring a fully finished walkout basement, located in the highly sought-after Clarkstown School District! This property includes 4 bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with a warm and inviting living room on the main floor adorned with beautiful hardwood floors as seen. Formerly utilized as commercial space, this home offers great potential for residential living or a possible home office setup. The walkout basement is equipped with 3 office spaces or dens along with a half bath. One of the highlights is the spacious driveway that accommodates over 10+ vehicles, conveniently situated off the main road! You’ll find this location just minutes away from restaurants, shops, parks, major roadways, and public transport options to NYC! Don’t miss out on this amazing opportunity! As per town, property can be converted back to commercial.

6. 2025-10-09
   listed $699,995 Active 903-char remark

   Show marketing remark (903 chars)

   HUGE PRICE DROP! Welcome to this fantastic ranch featuring a fully finished walkout basement, located in the highly sought-after Clarkstown School District! This property includes 4 bedrooms and a full bathroom, along with a warm and inviting living room on the main floor adorned with beautiful hardwood floors as seen. Formerly utilized as commercial space, this home offers great potential for residential living or a possible home office setup. The walkout basement is equipped with 3 office spaces or dens along with a half bath. One of the highlights is the spacious driveway that accommodates over 10+ vehicles, conveniently situated off the main road! You’ll find this location just minutes away from restaurants, shops, parks, major roadways, and public transport options to NYC! Don’t miss out on this amazing opportunity! As per town, property can be converted back to commercial.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,821 · $1,068/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,821 · $1,068/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$12,821
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,429
• − Management: −$3,429
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$26,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,329
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarkstown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620340
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $115,765
• Composite: 68.55/100
• National rank: #342
• State rank: #66 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bardonia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7419

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bardonia, NY
• County: Rockland County · 98,828 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,495
• Household income: $116,332
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 842.0

Population outlook (Rockland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 339,642 people
• By 2030: 345,987 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 357,178 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 362,456 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 367,281 · +8.1%
• By 2100: 328,211 · -3.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 15% Asian 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockland

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: D+1.7 2016: D+5.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.30%
• Current HPI: 273.6981
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.53%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $575,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $599,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $649,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Listed $699,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,821 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.