21205 Blue Curl Way

Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$197,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,539/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $644/mo
• Annual: $7,731/yr
• Cap rate: 10.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.02%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $55,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $197k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $644 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $197k).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rio Vista Elementary (463 students, 48% FRL); La Mesa Junior High (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 1,014 students, 39% FRL); Golden Valley High (2,073 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 18% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-52 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the William S. Hart Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.