21205 Blue Curl Way · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$219,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 54 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition Est $230k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious home in the desirable gated 55+ community of Greenbrier Estates. Features include a unique Atrium/Patio floorplan with lots of natural light from the many surrounding energy efficient windows! This home has 2 large living areas, oversized Primary Bedroom with ensuite bathroom including walk in tub/separate shower, wet bar, laundry/utility room with sink and tons of storage. Kitchen and both bathroom cabinets and countertops have been updated in the last few years. Private Backyard has plenty of room for your furry friends and a garden too! Washer/Dryer and Refrigerator are included. Enjoy all the Ammenities Greenbrier has to offer such as a recently remodeled Club

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Walk in tub
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• ATRIUM PATIO FLOORPLAN
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY BEDROOM
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN TUB
• WET BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size and living area from public records; Lot maintained with sprinklers and landscaping
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $1,350
• HOA & community: Senior community; Street lighting; Manager approval required for park residency; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; 3 carport spaces; Located in GreenBrier Estates
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Mobile home (Atrium model) remains on site; 24' x 60' mobile dimensions; Single-story
• Construction: Mobile home construction
• Exterior features: Community pool; Sprinklers in front, side, and rear; Landscaped yard with lawn; Front yard and back yard; Close to clubhouse; Yard; One shed; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home with front entry; Atrium; Entry; Living room; Family room; Main floor primary bedroom; Main floor bedroom; Primary bedroom; Primary bathroom; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $837 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rio Vista Elementary (463 students, 48% FRL); La Mesa Junior High (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 1,014 students, 39% FRL); Golden Valley High (2,073 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 18% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-52 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the William S. Hart Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.38%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21312 Seep Willow Way	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$135	94
21315 Jimpson Way	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$207,000	$144	90
21212 Seep Willow Way #272	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	7mo	$275,000	$179	80
21302 Blue Curl Way	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	1mo	$225,000	$144	74
21434 Tumbleweed Way	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$315,000	$219	73
21424 Bramble	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$265,000	$184	73
21432 Tumbleweed Way	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$230,000	$160	73
21202 Blue Curl Way	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	3mo	$220,000	$136	71
21205 Willow Weed Way	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,561 (+8%)	13mo	$359,000	$230	68
21317 Blue Curl Way	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,604 (+11%)	10mo	$225,000	$140	66
26515 Cockleburr Ln	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	15mo	$210,000	$156	65
26411 Bentgrass Way	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (+12%)	9mo	$359,000	$223	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $14,037
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $65,707
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,976 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $989	-5% $913	+0% $837	+5% $762	+10% $686
Rent	-10% $602	-5% $720	+0% $837	+5% $955	+10% $1,072
Rate	-1.0pp $947	-0.5pp $893	base $837	+0.5pp $780	+1.0pp $723

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26741 Isabella Pkwy Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,989	$3.52	0d	4	0.74mi
26842 Claudette St #204 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	964	$2,650	$2.75	0d	1	0.82mi
20345 Rue Crevier Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,700	$2.98	0d	1	0.88mi
26955 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1007	$2,850	$2.83	0d	1	0.90mi
26941 Rainbow Glen Dr #751 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,900	$3.20	0d	1	0.90mi
26921 Flo Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,950	$2.66	0d	1	0.98mi
26901 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1001	$2,950	$2.95	0d	1	0.98mi
26956 Flo Ln #338 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,875	$2.70	0d	1	1.07mi
26844 Albion Way Unit 1 Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1817	$3,995	$2.20	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    listed $219,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,857
• − Management: −$2,857
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $6,975
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $8,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home in Greenbrier Estates is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a modern kitchen and bathrooms, a well-maintained exterior, and hardwood flooring. The property is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace curtains — Freshens up the interior and adds a touch of elegance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace curtains — Freshens up the interior and adds a touch of elegance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $219,000 CRMLS