644 Fm 2679 Rd

Brenham, TX 77833

$245,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,142 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,587/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-181/mo
• Annual: $-2,177/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.17%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (35.2% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#136 in TX, #3,978 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Brenham ISD (town): math 50% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #263 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Krause El (math 39% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 647 students, 70% FRL); Brenham J H (math 54% / reading 46%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 763 students, 54% FRL); Brenham H S (math 50% / reading 45%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 1,584 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 519 active listings in the ZIP; 111 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.7% in Brenham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.