12088 N Lake St

Lilley, MI 49309

$329,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,383 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-986/mo
• Annual: $-11,835/yr
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.81%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $92,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-986 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (52.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (60.6% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (60.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Newaygo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newaygo County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 19 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $330k implies a 418% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.