12088 N Lake St · Lilley, MI 49309

$329,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,383 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 1978 0.66 ac lot $138/sqft · 24% below area Est $435k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this incredible opportunity to own a stunning renovated 4-bedroom, 2 full bath year-round home overlooking beautiful all-sports Pettibone Lake! This spacious home is filled with character and comfort, includes new vinyl flooring and brand new carpet, featuring expansive bay windows that capture the breathtaking lake views and fill the home with natural light. Soaring vaulted ceilings create an open, airy feel, while the cozy fireplace make it the perfect place to relax in every season. The large fully updated kitchen with new cabinets, stainless appliances, and quartz counter tops, adds an ideal space for entertaining family and friends. Have your morning coffee right outside on the very large deck and enjoy the peaceful Lake views, and experience the breathtaking sunsets. Another added benefit is the oversized heated garage offers plenty of room for vehicles, boats, lake toys, and extra storage.

Key facts

• Very large deck
• Renovated home
• 0.66 acre lot

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• EXPANSIVE BAY WINDOWS
• LARGE FULLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• VERY LARGE DECK
• OVERSIZED HEATED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Tandem detached garage (2-car)
• Utilities: Well water; Electricity available; Propane water heater
• Home design: Ranch-style single-family residence; Built in 1978; Living area reported (see listing)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof; Full basement
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Pole barn; Located on Pettibone Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (15 x 12); Bedroom 2 (12 x 10); Bedroom 3 (12 x 9); Bedroom 4 (14 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one approx. 6 x 10, one approx. 8 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall-mounted cooling units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Wood-burning fireplace; Additional fireplace; Screens, insulated windows and bay/bow windows; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room (13 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-986 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (52.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (60.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (60.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Newaygo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Newaygo County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 19 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $330k implies a 418% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $130,049 (60.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.81%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 21.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,714
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: -24.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12091 N Lake St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,196 (-8%)	12mo	$425,000	$194	70
328 Ford St	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,600 (+9%)	20mo	$410,000	$158	57
316 Ford St	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,737 (+15%)	12mo	$445,000	$163	55
422 Pettibone Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,700 (+13%)	13mo	$487,000	$180	55
11664 N Gordon Ave	0.69mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,200 (-8%)	1mo	$495,000	$225	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $116,713
• Equity at exit: $297,200

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $392,811
• Equity at exit: $640,923

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49309

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 21.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,754/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-986

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,549

Max offer price $155,672

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-800	-5% $-893	+0% $-986	+5% $-1,080	+10% $-1,173
Rent	-10% $-1,089	-5% $-1,038	+0% $-986	+5% $-935	+10% $-884
Rate	-1.0pp $-820	-0.5pp $-902	base $-986	+0.5pp $-1,072	+1.0pp $-1,159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $329,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $329,900 Active 1327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1324 chars)

    Don't miss this incredible opportunity to own a stunning renovated 4-bedroom, 2 full bath year-round home overlooking beautiful all-sports Pettibone Lake! This spacious home is filled with character and comfort, includes new vinyl flooring and brand new carpet, featuring expansive bay windows that capture the breathtaking lake views and fill the home with natural light. Soaring vaulted ceilings create an open, airy feel, while the cozy fireplace make it the perfect place to relax in every season. The large fully updated kitchen with new cabinets, stainless appliances, and quartz counter tops, adds an ideal space for entertaining family and friends. Have your morning coffee right outside on the very large deck and enjoy the peaceful Lake views, and experience the breathtaking sunsets. Another added benefit is the oversized heated garage offers plenty of room for vehicles, boats, lake toys, and extra storage. Pettibone Lake has 5 public access points, the boat launch is about 500 feet from the home. It is located in Northern Newaygo County near Bitely, MI, is a 44-acre sandy-bottom lake known for its quiet, resort-community atmosphere and adjacent 1,600+ acres of Manistee National Forest. Whether you're searching for a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or investment home, make your appointment today.

18. 2026-05-12
    listed $329,900 Active 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1324 chars)

    Don't miss this incredible opportunity to own a stunning renovated 4-bedroom, 2 full bath year-round home overlooking beautiful all-sports Pettibone Lake! This spacious home is filled with character and comfort, includes new vinyl flooring and brand new carpet, featuring expansive bay windows that capture the breathtaking lake views and fill the home with natural light. Soaring vaulted ceilings create an open, airy feel, while the cozy fireplace make it the perfect place to relax in every season. The large fully updated kitchen with new cabinets, stainless appliances, and quartz counter tops, adds an ideal space for entertaining family and friends. Have your morning coffee right outside on the very large deck and enjoy the peaceful Lake views, and experience the breathtaking sunsets. Another added benefit is the oversized heated garage offers plenty of room for vehicles, boats, lake toys, and extra storage. Pettibone Lake has 5 public access points, the boat launch is about 500 feet from the home. It is located in Northern Newaygo County near Bitely, MI, is a 44-acre sandy-bottom lake known for its quiet, resort-community atmosphere and adjacent 1,600+ acres of Manistee National Forest. Whether you're searching for a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or investment home, make your appointment today.

19. 2026-05-12
    listed $329,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1324 chars)

    Don't miss this incredible opportunity to own a stunning renovated 4-bedroom, 2 full bath year-round home overlooking beautiful all-sports Pettibone Lake! This spacious home is filled with character and comfort, includes new vinyl flooring and brand new carpet, featuring expansive bay windows that capture the breathtaking lake views and fill the home with natural light. Soaring vaulted ceilings create an open, airy feel, while the cozy fireplace make it the perfect place to relax in every season. The large fully updated kitchen with new cabinets, stainless appliances, and quartz counter tops, adds an ideal space for entertaining family and friends. Have your morning coffee right outside on the very large deck and enjoy the peaceful Lake views, and experience the breathtaking sunsets. Another added benefit is the oversized heated garage offers plenty of room for vehicles, boats, lake toys, and extra storage. Pettibone Lake has 5 public access points, the boat launch is about 500 feet from the home. It is located in Northern Newaygo County near Bitely, MI, is a 44-acre sandy-bottom lake known for its quiet, resort-community atmosphere and adjacent 1,600+ acres of Manistee National Forest. Whether you're searching for a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or investment home, make your appointment today.

20. 2014-09-16
    historical
21. 2014-09-16
    historical
22. 2014-09-15
    historical
23. 2014-09-15
    historical
24. 2014-09-15
    historical
25. 2014-09-15
    historical
26. 2014-09-15
    historical
27. 2005-05-25
    soldstatus $63,680
28. 2005-05-25
    soldstatus $63,680
29. 2005-01-14
    listed $79,900
30. 2005-01-14
    listed $79,900
31. 2004-11-21
    historical
32. 2004-08-30
    historical
33. 2004-08-30
    historical
34. 2004-05-21
    listed $87,900
35. 2004-05-21
    listed $109,900
36. 2004-05-21
    listed $109,900
37. 2004-05-21
    listed $87,900
38. 2004-05-21
    listed $109,900
39. 2004-05-21
    listed $109,900
40. 2004-03-31
    historical
41. 2003-12-08
    historical
42. 2003-10-22
    listed $139,900
43. 2003-10-22
    listed $112,900
44. 2003-10-22
    listed $112,900
45. 2003-10-22
    listed $139,900
46. 2003-07-30
    historical
47. 2003-05-08
    listed $139,900
48. 2003-05-08
    listed $139,900
49. 2002-04-20
    historical
50. 2001-04-20
    listed $157,880

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,754 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,417 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,663/yr (+$139/mo · 94.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$1,754
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$18,371
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,409
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Lilley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,608

Population outlook (Newaygo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,371 people
• By 2030: 44,879 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 41,107 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 36,800 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 27,507 · -40.7%
• By 2100: 18,600 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newaygo

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 27.9% · R 70.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.70%
• Current HPI: 273.0801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+109.0% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $329,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Listed $329,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $329,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-16 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-16 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2005-05-25 Sold (MLS) $63,680 REALCOMP
• 2005-05-25 Sold (MLS) $63,680 SW Michigan MLS
• 2005-01-14 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-01-14 Listed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2004-11-21 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2004-08-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2004-08-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2004-05-21 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2004-05-21 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2004-05-21 Listed $87,900 REALCOMP
• 2004-05-21 Listed $109,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2004-05-21 Listed $109,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2004-05-21 Listed $87,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2004-03-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2003-12-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2003-10-22 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-10-22 Listed $112,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-10-22 Listed $112,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2003-10-22 Listed $139,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2003-07-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2003-05-08 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-05-08 Listed $139,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2002-04-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2001-04-20 Listed $157,880 REALCOMP
• 2001-04-20 Listed $157,880 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,754 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.