1016 Spring Bay Rd

East Peoria, IL 61611

$136,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $70/mo
• Annual: $835/yr
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.18%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $38,332

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $137k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($835/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (7.2% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $946 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#209 in IL, #3,927 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• East Peoria Chsd 309 (suburban): math 17% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #482 of 620 in IL (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Armstrong-Oakview Elem School (187 students, 0% FRL); Central Jr High School (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 665 statewide, top 77%, 462 students, 0% FRL); East Peoria High School (math 17% / reading 15%, grade F, #457 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 947 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Tazewell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tazewell County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $137k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.6% in East Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.