1016 Spring Bay Rd · East Peoria, IL 61611

$136,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1960 0.44 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is being sold *AS IS* This 2-3 bedroom ranch is situated on half an acre in East Peoria. You can enjoy the country setting, while the city convenience is a short 5-10 minute drive. MORE PICTURES COMING SOON!

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Updated furnace
• Huge lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• HUGE LOT
• POTENTIAL 3RD BEDROOM
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• UPDATED FURNACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic system for sewer/wastewater
• Home design: Single-family residence; Shingle roof; Built in 1960
• Construction: Full basement; Not new construction
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on main level (approx. 12' x 12' and 12' x 10'); Additional potential bedroom in basement (no closet)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank on main-level living areas, kitchen and bedrooms; Other flooring in basement and laundry areas
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full, partially finished basement; Egress windows in basement rooms; Kitchen, living room, laundry, additional finished rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located in basement laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($835/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.6% in East Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#209 in IL, #3,927 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• East Peoria Chsd 309 (suburban): math 17% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #482 of 620 in IL (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Armstrong-Oakview Elem School (187 students, 0% FRL); Central Jr High School (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 665 statewide, top 77%, 462 students, 0% FRL); East Peoria High School (math 17% / reading 15%, grade F, #457 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 947 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Tazewell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $946 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tazewell County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $137k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $127,058 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.18%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-17,740
• Equity at exit: $20,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,694
• Equity at exit: $11,837

Cash invested: $38,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61611

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,911/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,183

Max offer price $136,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $108	+0% $70	+5% $31	+10% $-8
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $19	+0% $70	+5% $120	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $104	base $70	+0.5pp $34	+1.0pp $-2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,225
• Closing costs: $4,107
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $136,900 Under Contract 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $136,900 Under Contract 25 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $136,900 Under Contract 24 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $136,900 Under Contract 23 DOM
5. 2026-05-08
   historical Under Contract
6. 2026-05-07
   listed $136,900 Active
7. 2019-12-13
   soldstatus $69,000 216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (216 chars)

   Property is being sold *AS IS* This 2-3 bedroom ranch is situated on half an acre in East Peoria. You can enjoy the country setting, while the city convenience is a short 5-10 minute drive. MORE PICTURES COMING SOON!

8. 2019-12-13
   soldstatus $69,000

   Show marketing remark (216 chars)

   Property is being sold *AS IS* This 2-3 bedroom ranch is situated on half an acre in East Peoria. You can enjoy the country setting, while the city convenience is a short 5-10 minute drive. MORE PICTURES COMING SOON!

9. 2019-09-13
   listed $70,000 216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (216 chars)

   Property is being sold *AS IS* This 2-3 bedroom ranch is situated on half an acre in East Peoria. You can enjoy the country setting, while the city convenience is a short 5-10 minute drive. MORE PICTURES COMING SOON!

10. 2000-04-26
    soldstatus $72,000
11. 1997-12-05
    soldstatus $29,000
12. 1994-11-02
    soldstatus $25,666

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,911 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,509 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$598/yr (+$50/mo · 31.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,669
• − Property taxes: −$1,911
• − Insurance: −$684
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$3,983
• Taxable loss: −$1,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$345
• After-tax cash flow: $1,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Peoria Chsd 309
• NCES district ID: 1713230
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,439
• Composite: 14.75/100
• National rank: #9394
• State rank: #482 of 620 in IL

Livability — East Peoria

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #3927

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23,698
• Population (ZIP): 23,698

Population outlook (Tazewell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,252 people
• By 2030: 128,028 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 120,443 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 111,872 · -14.8%
• By 2075: 89,843 · -31.5%
• By 2100: 66,468 · -49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tazewell

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.7) · D 35.8% · R 62.5% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.7 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+28.5 2012: R+17.9 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.82%
• Current HPI: 161.385
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+433.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $136,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-13 Sold (MLS) $69,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-13 Listed $70,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1994-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,666 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,911 · -18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.