3175 Aspen Ave

Medina, MN 55359

$575,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$608
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $-467/mo
• Annual: $-5,605/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $492k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (30.5% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($566k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $400k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#756 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Orono Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #9 of 301 in MN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orono Intermediate Elementary (math 73% / reading 75%, grade A, #39 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 637 students, 8% FRL); Orono Middle (math 59% / reading 70%, grade A-, #14 of 258 statewide, top 6%, 700 students, 12% FRL); Orono Senior High (math 57% / reading 78%, grade B, #18 of 471 statewide, top 4%, 947 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $385k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.0% in Medina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.