3175 Aspen Ave · Medina, MN 55359

$575,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1992 0.32 ac lot $292/sqft · 13% below area Est $852k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A+ Orono Schools. Affordable and remodeled!! Fun & Adventure at your doorstep. Boat Launch for neighborhood residents. Fenced backyard, Sunny & Bright in every room. Gas fireplace. Heated 3+ stall garage. New roof & gutters. Todays fresh decor thru-out. Move in ready. Quick close.

Key facts

• 3 car heated garage
• New garage doors
• New decking

Tags

• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• 3 CAR HEATED GARAGE
• NEW GARAGE DOORS
• NEW DECKING
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• NEW CARPET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage with garage door opener; 3-car garage (garage dimensions approx. 35 x 30)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; Four-or-more-level split
• Construction: Roof age 8 years or less; Foundation described as other; Above-grade finished area noted
• Exterior features: Deck; Partial chain link fencing; Lot approximately 0.32 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with window; Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level; Upper-level bedrooms (two bedrooms noted on upper level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: Primary 3/4 bath; Main floor 3/4 bath; Upper-level full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with daylight/lookout windows, tile floors, and drain-tiled system; Sump pump; Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceiling(s); Primary bedroom suite; 3 bedrooms on one level; Family room with gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup; Water softener (rented)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $492k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.0% in Medina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#756 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Orono Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #9 of 301 in MN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orono Intermediate Elementary (math 73% / reading 75%, grade A, #39 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 637 students, 8% FRL); Orono Middle (math 59% / reading 70%, grade A-, #14 of 258 statewide, top 6%, 700 students, 12% FRL); Orono Senior High (math 57% / reading 78%, grade B, #18 of 471 statewide, top 4%, 947 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($566k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $385k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $399,500 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $852,171
• List price: $575,000
• Delta: -32.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-123,077
• Equity at exit: $85,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-146,108
• Equity at exit: $49,715

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55359

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,418/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $-467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,586

Max offer price $492,493

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-142	-5% $-304	+0% $-467	+5% $-630	+10% $-793
Rent	-10% $-783	-5% $-625	+0% $-467	+5% $-309	+10% $-151
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-321	base $-467	+0.5pp $-616	+1.0pp $-768

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2930 Lindgren Ln Maple Plain, MN	4.0	2.0	2250	$3,995	$1.78	5d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-19
   historical Contingent - Inspection 482-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   price $575,000 482-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $599,900 Active 482-char remark
4. 2020-02-06
   soldstatus $385,000 Sold 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   A+ Orono Schools. Affordable and remodeled!! Fun & Adventure at your doorstep. Boat Launch for neighborhood residents. Fenced backyard, Sunny & Bright in every room. Gas fireplace. Heated 3+ stall garage. New roof & gutters. Todays fresh decor thru-out. Move in ready. Quick close.

5. 2019-12-23
   status Pending 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   A+ Orono Schools. Affordable and remodeled!! Fun & Adventure at your doorstep. Boat Launch for neighborhood residents. Fenced backyard, Sunny & Bright in every room. Gas fireplace. Heated 3+ stall garage. New roof & gutters. Todays fresh decor thru-out. Move in ready. Quick close.

6. 2019-11-28
   historical Contingent - Sale of Another Property 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   A+ Orono Schools. Affordable and remodeled!! Fun & Adventure at your doorstep. Boat Launch for neighborhood residents. Fenced backyard, Sunny & Bright in every room. Gas fireplace. Heated 3+ stall garage. New roof & gutters. Todays fresh decor thru-out. Move in ready. Quick close.

7. 2019-11-05
   listed $389,500 Active 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   A+ Orono Schools. Affordable and remodeled!! Fun & Adventure at your doorstep. Boat Launch for neighborhood residents. Fenced backyard, Sunny & Bright in every room. Gas fireplace. Heated 3+ stall garage. New roof & gutters. Todays fresh decor thru-out. Move in ready. Quick close.

8. 2014-08-29
   soldstatus $255,000
9. 2014-08-26
   soldstatus $255,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Stunning, park-like setting for 4+ level home. Open floorplan flows smoothly! Near Baker Park Reserve and the beaches of Lake Independence. East Access to HWY 12. Heated garage has 12 foot ceilings! Pride of ownership shows in this 1 owner home. Must see!

10. 2014-08-26
    soldstatus $255,000

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Stunning, park-like setting for 4+ level home. Open floorplan flows smoothly! Near Baker Park Reserve and the beaches of Lake Independence. East Access to HWY 12. Heated garage has 12 foot ceilings! Pride of ownership shows in this 1 owner home. Must see!

11. 2014-08-26
    soldstatus $255,000

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Stunning, park-like setting for 4+ level home. Open floorplan flows smoothly! Near Baker Park Reserve and the beaches of Lake Independence. East Access to HWY 12. Heated garage has 12 foot ceilings! Pride of ownership shows in this 1 owner home. Must see!

12. 2014-07-06
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Stunning, park-like setting for 4+ level home. Open floorplan flows smoothly! Near Baker Park Reserve and the beaches of Lake Independence. East Access to HWY 12. Heated garage has 12 foot ceilings! Pride of ownership shows in this 1 owner home. Must see!

13. 2014-06-25
    historical Contingent - Inspection

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Stunning, park-like setting for 4+ level home. Open floorplan flows smoothly! Near Baker Park Reserve and the beaches of Lake Independence. East Access to HWY 12. Heated garage has 12 foot ceilings! Pride of ownership shows in this 1 owner home. Must see!

14. 2014-06-21
    price $255,000

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Stunning, park-like setting for 4+ level home. Open floorplan flows smoothly! Near Baker Park Reserve and the beaches of Lake Independence. East Access to HWY 12. Heated garage has 12 foot ceilings! Pride of ownership shows in this 1 owner home. Must see!

15. 2014-06-20
    listed $245,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Stunning, park-like setting for 4+ level home. Open floorplan flows smoothly! Near Baker Park Reserve and the beaches of Lake Independence. East Access to HWY 12. Heated garage has 12 foot ceilings! Pride of ownership shows in this 1 owner home. Must see!

16. 2014-06-20
    listed $255,000

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Stunning, park-like setting for 4+ level home. Open floorplan flows smoothly! Near Baker Park Reserve and the beaches of Lake Independence. East Access to HWY 12. Heated garage has 12 foot ceilings! Pride of ownership shows in this 1 owner home. Must see!

17. 2014-06-20
    listed $255,000

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Stunning, park-like setting for 4+ level home. Open floorplan flows smoothly! Near Baker Park Reserve and the beaches of Lake Independence. East Access to HWY 12. Heated garage has 12 foot ceilings! Pride of ownership shows in this 1 owner home. Must see!

18. 1992-08-04
    soldstatus $31,180
19. 1992-01-01
    soldstatus $150,403

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,418 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,429 · $452/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,011/yr (+$84/mo · 22.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$4,418
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,835
• − Management: −$3,835
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable loss: −$15,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,830
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orono Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2725080
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $93,850
• Composite: 62.7/100
• National rank: #673
• State rank: #9 of 301 in MN

Livability — Medina

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #756
• US rank: #18606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medina, MN
• Population (ZIP): 7,068

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.80%
• Current HPI: 261.8218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+282.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $575,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $599,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-06 Sold (MLS) $385,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-23 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-05 Listed $389,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-26 Sold (MLS) $255,000 LSAR
• 2014-08-26 Sold (MLS) $255,000 RASM
• 2014-08-26 Sold (MLS) $255,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-25 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-21 Price Changed $255,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-20 Listed $245,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-20 Listed $255,000 LSAR
• 2014-06-20 Listed $255,000 RASM
• 1992-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $31,180 Public Records
• 1992-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $150,403 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,418 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.