2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,080 sqft ·
Built 1985
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 80 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,928/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$306
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$405
Net cashflow
$-41/mo
Annual
$-490/yr
Cap rate
6.09%
Cash-on-cash
-0.73%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$67,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-490/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (3.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (19.7% below list).
It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $193k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#92 in FL, #1,438 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F.
Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Longwood Elementary School (math 55% / reading 63%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 631 students, 62% FRL); Milwee Middle School (math 55% / reading 56%, grade B-, #178 of 571 statewide, top 31%, 1,426 students, 64% FRL); Winter Springs High School (math 43% / reading 55%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,038 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $41k; list at $240k implies a 485% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Longwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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