2700 Santa Ynez St

Los Olivos, CA 93441

$4,390,000D

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 5,090 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 456 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $30,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,022
• Tax + insurance: −$3,241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,300
• Net cashflow: $-2,562/mo
• Annual: $-30,747/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.50%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $1,229,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $4.39M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.94M (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.00M (31.7% below list).
• It's been on market 456 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.86M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.00M (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($30k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#674 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Los Olivos Elementary (town): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #142 of 1,400 in CA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Los Olivos Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #122 of 1,571 statewide, top 8%, 163 students, 25% FRL); Santa Ynez Valley Union High (847 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $505k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $289k; list at $4.39M implies a 1419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$254k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 456 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.